Suppose that instead of a relatively decisive win by Barack Obama on Election Day, we instead have a very close election.Wish state might the McCain campaign really, really wish that they hadn't insulted?I'll give you a hint. It's not technically a state, but rather, a commonwealth.Five separate polls of Virginia have been released within the past 48 hours.
While there are a few surprises here and there, once again the theme of today's polls is stability in the race for the White House.John McCain narrowed his gap significantly in today's Zogby tracking poll, drawing from 9.5 points behind to 5.3. As you probably know, I have a signifiacnt critique of Zogby's weighting mechanism, which assumes that the partisan identification breakdown will be roughly equal to 2004, when about the same number of Democrats and Republicans turned out for the election. Neverthless, McCain also improved slightly in the Research 2000, IBD/TIPP, and ABC/Post polls.
With fewer than ten days to go until the election, John McCain is another day older and deeper in the polls.: It is hard to find any trend at all at the national level, although Barack Obama's position improved has incrementally in a couple of the national trackers. Indeed, our model now perceives that the popular vote has been flat for roughly the past two weeks.
This was something of a partly cloudy day for both candidates. The national polls generally contained reasonable news for Barack Obama, who advanced in four tracking polls to McCain's three (Rasmussen was flat). In addition, Obama pulled strong numbers from the weekly editions of the GQR/Democracy Corps and Economist/YouGov polls.On the other hand, this set of state polling contains some comforting nuggets for John McCain:Strategic Vision has McCain narrowly ahead in both Florida and Ohio, and gaining ground in Pennslyvania.
From yesterday's CBS/NYT poll:Fifty-nine percent of registered voters think McCain's economics would favor the wealthy; just 11 percent the middle class.
This is not the time when John McCain can afford a bad polling day. And yet he's had perhaps his worst one of the year.The national trackers were essentially a push -- three moved toward Obama, two toward McCain, two were flat -- but the action today is at the state level. And boy, there is a lot of action: 29 new state polls enterring our database. And many of them contain great news for Obama.We already discussed the Big Ten and Quinnipiac polls, which are exceptionally strong for Obama across the board. But those aren't the only places where he's putting up some intimidating numbers.
New polling this morning from the Big Ten polling consortium and Quinnipiac University present a view of what the world might look like if Barack Obama wins in a landslide.The Big Ten polls have Obama ahead by double digits in ten Midwestern states: he leads by 10 in Indiana, 11 in Pennsylvania, 12 in Ohio, 13 in Wisconsin and Iowa, 19 in Minnesota, 22 in Michigan, and 29 in Illinois.Quinnipiac has Obama ahead by 14 points in Ohio, 13 points in Pennsylvania, and 5 points in Florida.The thing to recognize about polls like these is that they may tell us less about the individual states and more
While there are plenty of individual results for Matt Drudge to get excited about (or for that matter the Huffington Post), the fact is that the overall trend in this election is roughly flat, and has been for about a week or so. That is bad news for the candidate trailing in the race, which in this case is John McCain.Five of the eight tracking polls moved toward Barack Obama today; the other three moved toward McCain.
There had been some pushback from McCain operatives about whether the Republican in fact intended to concede Colorado, as CNN had reported yesterday.
After some incremental improvements by John McCain over the course of the past week, we are now looking once again a handful of polls showing Barack Obama with a double-digit lead -- most dramatically his 14-point advantage in the latest Pew poll. Obama also gained ground in the aggregate of the national trackers, which showed four Obama gains (Zogby, Gallup, Pew, IBD/TIPP), one McCain gain (Battleground), and three pushes (Rasmussen, Research 2000, ABC/Post).What we may have witnessed is some sort of dead cat bounce for John McCain.