Nate Silver

Today's Polls: Mccain's Steep Road Ahead
October 14, 2008

Perhaps the CBS poll that shows Barack Obama with a 14-point lead among likely voters (12 points when third-party candidates are included) is a modest outlier. But if so, John McCain has more and more outliers that he has to explain away these days. There are now no fewer than seven current national polls that show Obama with a double-digit advantage: Newsweek (+11), ABC/Post (+10), Democracy Corps (+10), Research 2000 (+10), Battleground (+13), Gallup (+10 using their Likely Voter II model) and now this CBS News poll.These are balanced by other results that show the race a hair tighter.

Today's Polls: Obama Bolstering Leads In Red States
October 13, 2008

It's hard to tell these days whether the McCain campaign is coming or going; they have thus far defied our prediction that they would revert to a kinder, gentler tone. But the polls continue to break in pretty much just one direction, and it isn't in Senator McCain's.Both Rasmussen and SurveyUSA released a ton of polling today, and it is almost uniformly favorable for Barack Obama.

What Happened To The Bradley Effect?
October 13, 2008

It was Tom Bradley's 1982 race for governor of California, in which he lost to George Deukmejian in spite of leading in the public polls, that gave the Bradley Effect its name.

Another Way To Look At Mccain's Odds
October 12, 2008

Presently, we show John McCain with a 5.9 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, a figure that will seem implausibly low to many of you. But here's a bit of context from John Harwood at the New York Times: In the latest Gallup tracking poll, Mr. Obama leads Mr. McCain 50 percent to 43 percent among registered voters. Mr.

Today's Polls: Sorry, Matt Drudge -- No Mac Comeback Yet
October 12, 2008

I've been fighting a bit of a cold on and off for the past couple of weeks, and so I took most of the day to rest and recover and to check a couple of assumptions in our model. But before we get ahead of ourselves, let's look at what we have to work with on a relatively light polling day:Colorado actually hadn't been polled all that much over the past two weeks or so, so the new PPP poll, giving Obama a 10-point lead there, is a pretty big deal.

Today's Polls: Steady As She Goes
October 11, 2008

The political industry's day of rest is Saturday, not Sunday, when the morning talk shows can make news, and campaigns try and jockey to lead the news cycle in the week ahead. As such, it tends to be the slowest day of the week for polling, and today is no exception:There are really only two items of any significance here. Firstly, Obama continues to hold or slightly improve his position in the national tracking polls.

Today's Polls: The Fat Lady Has Entered The Building
October 10, 2008

With 25 days to go until the election, Barack Obama is presently at his all-time highs in four of the six national tracking polls (Research 2000, Battleground, Hotline and Zogby) and is just one point off his high in Gallup. He has emerged with clear leads in both Florida and Ohio, where there are several polls out today. He is blowing McCain out in most polls of Pennsylvania and Michigan, and is making states like West Virgina and Georgia competitive.There's just nothing in there for McCain to hang his hat on.

The Throwing-under-buses Phase Begins
October 10, 2008

This is pretty interesting: [Norm] Coleman told reporters that he would not be appearing at a planned rally with McCain this afternoon. Could it be McCain's sliding polling numbers in Minnesota? His attacks on Obama? Coleman said he needs the time to work on suspending his own negative ads."Today," he said, "people need hope and a more positive campaign is a start." There are at least three groups of Republicans that might have an interest in distancing themselves from John McCain.

Are The Ayers Attacks Working?
October 09, 2008

Bill Ayers' Wikipedia entry has been accessed between 49,500 and 96,000 times over each of the past five days, as the McCain campaign has sought to stress the linkages between Barack Obama and the former Weather Underground frontman. This is a high figure; Jeremiah Wright, at his peak, was getting about 38,500 hits per day; Obama and McCain themselves are generally in the high five figures or very low six figures.

Today's Polls: West Virginia?
October 09, 2008

The idea of Barack Obama winning North Carolina or perhaps Indiana, I think we have gotten accustomed to. But Obama winning ... West Virginia, a state where he got barely a quarter of the vote in the Democratic primary?That's what American Research Group says; in fact, it gives Obama a rather large, 8-point lead in the Mountaineer State.