PLANK JANUARY 21, 2013
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Benjamin Netanyahu knows a thing or two about election-night surprises. In 1996, after months in which rival Shimon Peres seemed headed for a landslide, Netanyahu defied the exit polls and squeaked by in one of the great upsets of Israeli electoral history. “Went to bed with Peres, woke up with Netanyahu,” went the saying.
Those hoping for a reverse scenario in tomorrow’s Israeli elections can stop reading here. Netanyahu is not going anywhere (if it’s up to him, as he said over the weekend, he will run again in the next elections, slated for 2017). And if the conventional wisdom is correct, he will opt for a right-wing coalition much like his current one.
But there is suddenly another scenario – unthinkable just a couple weeks ago – in which Netanyahu emerges badly weakened by tomorrow’s results and finds himself cornered into a centrist, national-unity government that will force him to make tough choices on the peace process and other issues.
Farfetched? Yes. Impossible? Not anymore. Before explaining why it could happen, it’s worth noting why it’s unlikely to.
Netanyahu goes into tomorrow with many advantages. Despite mediocre approval ratings, voters see him as the only plausible prime minister in the field of contenders. And despite the disappointing performance of his Likud Party's alliance with indicted (now-former) Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman's ultra-nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu (“Israel Our Home”), the bloc is still poised to win twice as many seats as its closest competitor.
But Netanayhu's invincibility always lay less in the power of his personal brand or that of his party than in the total parliamentary strength of the right-wing parties that make up the core of his coalition: Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, the ultra-Orthodox parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism), and the pro-settler HaBayit HaYehudi (“Jewish Home”).
For months in the run-up to these elections, those parties enjoyed a commanding lead over their centrist and left-wing rivals, scoring roughly 70 seats between them versus 40 for the center-left as of a few weeks ago. (The Arab parties, which never have been – and likely never will be – part of an Israeli government, have generally been steady at eleven or twelve seats).
But in 2013, the balance has steadily shifted against Netanyahu and the right. In the final two days of polling (with the exception of one outlying pollster), the right dropped to the mid-sixties, with two polls giving it 63 seats, just two more than the 61 Knesset members needed to form a government. Making matters worse for Netanyahu, in most of the polls that total includes two or three seats from the surging Otzma L’Yisrael (“Strong Israel”), a pro-settler party with views so extreme that Netanyahu could not plausibly include them in his coalition. Likud Beiteinu has suffered the bulk of the losses (the alliance, which Netanyahu's political adviser predicted would win 47 seats, is polling as low as 32, ten less than the two parties have in the outgoing Knesset).
It’s not clear why this has happened. It could be that Netanyahu has hemorrhaged votes in the center as he’s tried to woo back right-wing votes lost to HaBayit HaYehudi under the leadership of staffer-turned-rival Naftali Bennett. It could be that some of Avigdor Lieberman's supporters have begun exploring centrist alternatives now that his legal troubles have sidelined him. It could also be that the rhetorical campaign against Netanyahu – joined in recent weeks by his predecessor, his former intelligence chief, President Obama, and the country's president – is finally making a dent.
And it may not matter. If the polls are accurate, Netanyahu will still enjoy the same right-wing "blocking majority" he has had for the past four years and will enter coalition negotiations from a position of strength. The conventional wisdom is that he will secure his right-wing base and then try to lure one or two center-left parties as a moderate fig leaf to appease the Israeli public and the international community.
But given that there have been no polls since Friday – Israeli law forbids them in a campaign's final days – there is some uncertainty involved in the outcome. And if it turns out that undecideds continued breaking left over the weekend – or if center-left turnout exceeds expectations, as some analyses suggest it might – Netanyahu and his "natural allies" could fall just short of a majority. (The odds of this scenario would also increase if the far-right Otzma L’Yisrael surprises and wins four or five seats instead of the two or three it’s been polling at.)
Should this happen, Netanyahu would have a huge problem. While his preference would remain the same – to entice one or maybe two center-left parties into an otherwise right-wing coalition – his loss of a pocket majority would force him to concede far more in the negotiations, particularly in the makeup of the government.
All four center-left parties have said that they would not join a right-wing government alone (Labor Party leader Shelly Yacimovich recently promised not to join a Netanyahu-led government under any circumstances, but that followed months of demurral). And were they to negotiate as a bloc with an "all-of-us-or-none-of-us" approach, Netanyahu would have no choice but to take all of them. The result would be a national-unity government consisting of Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, Labor, former journalist Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid (“There is a Future”), former foreign minister Tzipi Livni's "The Movement," and Kadima (like Otzma L’Yisrael, the party seemed unlikely to cross the two-percent threshold needed to get Knesset seats just a few weeks ago, but is now expected to get in with two or three seats).
For Netanyahu, such a secular centrist government would have its advantages. It would enjoy broad public support, particularly were it able to rescind some of the privileges (such as exemption from military service) given to the ultra-Orthodox by previous Israeli governments. It would also appease the global community, particularly if Netanyahu restored the internationally popular Livni to the foreign ministry. And it would no doubt be personally satisfying for Netanyahu to exclude arch-nemesis Naftali Bennett (Bennett, who had a falling out with Netanyahu and his wife after a short stint as his bureau chief, joked a few days ago that he was in "terrorism course" with Sara Netanyahu).
But for obvious reasons, this arrangement would be a nightmare for Netanyahu. The government would be highly unstable, likely leading to early elections within two or three years. It would be less likely to rubber-stamp a unilateral attack on Iran. And it would also force Netanyahu beyond his comfort zone on the peace process--an issue he’s been perfectly comfortable to avoid.
Fortunately for Netanyahu, it's a nightmare he's likely to avoid. Barely.
Ben Birnbaum is a writer living in Jerusalem.
23 comments
Netanyahu's weakening would be no cause for cheer. The prospect of nuclear Iran without meaningful opposition from Israel or Obama's USA is not just a danger to Israel, but has encouraged other Middle East states to hedge their bets with the purchase of nuclear weapons technology. China and Pakistan are willing vendors. North Korea and Russia have helped Iran. What are Obama and his dynamic trio, Hagel, Brennan and Kerry, going to do? Tsipi Livni is worthless. She is a brazen opportunist who will tell the international community whatever it wants to hear.
- amidut
January 21, 2013 at 2:28pm
Israel is not going to defend the United States from Iran, with or without Netanyahu.
- roidubouloi
January 21, 2013 at 3:25pm
Amidut, they're going to continue what the past administration has been doing and if and when necessary they'll say they're "containing" Iran. I never believed that Obama had it mind to be preventative about it through force, even though that has been his rhetorical position.
- basman
January 21, 2013 at 4:40pm
Amidut, they're going to continue what the past administration has been doing and if and when necessary they'll say they're "containing" Iran. I never believed that Obama had it mind to be preventative about it through force, even though that has been his rhetorical position.
- basman
January 21, 2013 at 4:40pm
"She is a brazen opportunist who will tell the international community whatever it wants to hear." Perhaps she's watching the American administration and learning ...
- Noga
January 22, 2013 at 6:18am
"She is a brazen opportunist who will tell the international community whatever it wants to hear." Perhaps she's watching the American administration and learning ...
- Noga
January 22, 2013 at 6:18am
right now things look like a shocker: 8.30 P.M. Voter turnout stands at 63.7 percent, as opposed to 59.7 percent at the same time in 2009. 8.08 P.M. Tzipi Livni says will pursue attempts to join forces with Labor and Yesh Atid. 8.06 P.M. Netanyahu calls on supporters: "The Likud government is in danger, go vote for us for the sake of the country's future."
- blackton
January 22, 2013 at 2:14pm
Netanyahu should make any effort to include Labour and Livni in his coalition. As J. Edgar Hoover said about someone: "I'd rather have him inside the tent pissing out than outside pissing in".
- Noga
January 22, 2013 at 3:16pm
I think it was LBJ, about Hoover.
- ironyroad
January 22, 2013 at 3:51pm
What, you are tired of Netanyahu standing in the tent and pissing in it too?
- roidubouloi
January 22, 2013 at 4:18pm
I am very, very, pleased by the results. The only thing better than Netanyahu losing lots of seats would have been his party's lose of the majority and inability to form the next government. But great news also comes in small victories. btw: I think the reason for the resurgent center left was that people in Israel got scared what an extreme right wing government would mean. Especially with at least one right wing candidate joking about blowing up The Muslim central mosque in Jerusalem. The right claimed victory too soon.
- arnon1
January 22, 2013 at 4:19pm
Yair Lapid has the same birthday as mine so what can I say, he is a sentimental favorite of mine. Labor said that they would not rule out endorsing him for PM. I can't stand Netanyahu (except as finance minister, in which he excels).
- blackton
January 22, 2013 at 6:07pm
Netanyahu is the most likely prime minister. In a coalition, Yair Lapid would not differ much with Netanyahu about war and peace. His main concern is overturning the system of special privileges and exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox. A worthy endeavor.
- amidut
January 22, 2013 at 6:14pm
"A worthy endeavor." Absolutely.
- arnon1
January 22, 2013 at 6:21pm
What amidut said. Also, Yair Lapid is rather good looking. Here he is, almost twenty years ago, in the Israeli comedy: "Song of the siren", playing an unreconstructed jerk. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywIbmMT6Rfo BTW, This "btw: I think the reason for the resurgent center left was that people in Israel got scared what an extreme right wing government would mean." shows how little arnon understands about what Israeli society is about. What they care for is equal sharing of the burdens, especially where it applies to the Haredi section. And Livni, Yachimovitz and Lapid are all centrist parties. Lapid is practically indistinguishable from Netanyahu when it comes to the Palestinians. He ran on the promise to deal with the issue of the Haredis, who do not serve in the army, do not pay taxes and yet get to be fully financed from the rest of society's hard won shekels.
- Noga
January 22, 2013 at 6:40pm
ironyroad is correct. LBJ said that ABOUT Hoover.
- Noga
January 22, 2013 at 6:44pm
For the record: http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151236018832293&set=a.103151622292.93283.21262362292&type=1
- Noga
January 22, 2013 at 6:55pm
ME “BTW, This "btw: I think the reason for the resurgent center left was that people in Israel got scared what an extreme right wing government would mean." She “shows how little arnon understands about what Israeli society is about.” I knew that NOGA was going to attack this btw (which is one reason that I inserted it. NOGA can be read as a trite book for slow learners, but never mind. BTW: Noga spent the last, don’t know how many years here, but they were many attacking the Israeli center left and being an almost fanatic supporter of the right wing Likud. Now she changes colors. Is it because she knows the Likud is destined for obsolescence? I am sure this will bring some more howls of execration from the lady who thinks she and only she knows all things Israeli and no one who disagrees with her biases could ever know anything.
- arnon1
January 22, 2013 at 8:24pm
Martin Kramer whom sometimes agree with isn't the last word on all things politico in Israel. Look for right wing commentators(yea the Commentary crowd) to argue that the demise of the Likud doesn't mean what most ordinary people think it means. Reminds me of the essay they ran in Commentary claiming in an off the cuff remark that Abe Lincoln was a (get this) corporate lawyer.
- arnon1
January 22, 2013 at 8:30pm
What an idiot.
- Noga
January 22, 2013 at 8:32pm
Quelle idiote!
- arnon1
January 22, 2013 at 8:55pm
The BBC has decided that the Israeli electorate was confused. They would never admit that they were wrong in their analysis, but it was the subject of their analysis that was wrong. Both the right and the left found it comforting to see Israel move right: the right because that how they like politics to be and the left because they could than attack Israel as a right-wing "State." Hopefully, (all the votes haven't been counted yet) both the left and the right will be wrong.
- arnon1
January 22, 2013 at 10:08pm
I am elated that my choice, Lapid did so well. BBC is pissed because this election was not about the Palestinians, it was about Israelis. And of course as Arnon pointed out, they were so wrong in they predictions.
- rmakover@swbell.net-OLD
January 24, 2013 at 7:40am