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Go Home Electionate’s Election Night Live Blog

ELECTIONATE NOVEMBER 6, 2012

Electionate’s Election Night Live Blog

BY NATE COHN

Over the next few hours, returns from across the country will resolve which of these campaign efforts succeeded and which did not. We'll learn whether the wealthy financiers of Fairfield, CT abandoned the president en masse, or whether a long-promised surge in Latino turnout will propel the president to victory. We’ll learn which voters flipped toward Romney, which voters stayed with Obama, and who will win the critical battleground states on the path to 270 electoral votes.  

We’ll be offering commentary and analysis, pointing out important trends, and deciphering the results throughout the night.

 

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Show all 63 comments

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63 comments

A question about exit polls we are seeing on CNN. What are they? People actually voting today. Some kind of adjustment? Obama seems a couple of points ahead.

- stanmvp48

November 6, 2012 at 8:38pm

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Come on, Blakton and Aaron what's happening in VA? I trusted that you knew Obama was going to take it. What happened to your powers of prognostication?

- arnon1

November 6, 2012 at 9:32pm

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They are still voting in Northern Virginia so how can it be called yet?

- blackton

November 6, 2012 at 9:41pm

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Obama is taking Fla and I am as pleased as Punchinello.

- arnon1

November 6, 2012 at 10:13pm

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Thanks to Nate Cohn for these excellent updates -- a must-read as the returns come in.

- JakeH

November 6, 2012 at 10:54pm

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Aaron called both Virginia AND Florida for Obama a couple of days ago.

- roidubouloi

November 6, 2012 at 10:59pm

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This blog is great. I love following the county by country votes here. It's also keeping my spirits up.

- arnon1

November 6, 2012 at 11:01pm

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woo woo

- Sophia

November 6, 2012 at 11:06pm

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The suspense is killing me already... I just got up (5 am here) for a bathroom break and took what I thought could be a 30-second detour to check the results, but the delays on Nate's feed (the most reliable on the Net) are like watching concrete being poured.

- vst

November 6, 2012 at 11:10pm

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Roid: told ya ... Florida :) ...

- icarus-r

November 6, 2012 at 11:16pm

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CNN - Ohio - Reelected.

- icarus-r

November 6, 2012 at 11:18pm

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A couple of networks have declared Obama the re-elected President. What a great night.

- arnon1

November 6, 2012 at 11:22pm

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Bye bye Mittens you narcissistic solipsistic rat bastard. I have no sympathy for him or Queen Ann, guess what? we decided it is not your turn. Oh and kudos to Nate Silver whom sees to have called it pretty damn well.

- blackton

November 6, 2012 at 11:23pm

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Obama won with four battle ground states still to be called: Fla, Va, Colo, and NV. He'll probably carry them but it's interesting that he won without them. So many keystrokes analyzing their voting patterns and they didn't figure in the final count. Amazing!

- arnon1

November 6, 2012 at 11:31pm

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"Oh and kudos to Nate Silver whom sees to have called it pretty damn well." Yea, better than even he knew. The election in terms of electoral votes wasn't even close: 274 to 203 and there is yet the four states I mentioned above to be added to the electoral count.

- arnon1

November 6, 2012 at 11:33pm

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NBC: The Romney campaign is not conceding Ohio. They are being stubborn ...

- icarus-r

November 6, 2012 at 11:33pm

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This was the real "World" Series.

- arnon1

November 6, 2012 at 11:37pm

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Romney is just delaying the burial of his campaign.

- arnon1

November 6, 2012 at 11:38pm

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I'm enjoying watching Karl Rove vs. Fox News.

- JakeH

November 6, 2012 at 11:39pm

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Romney and the Republicans are officially descending into Banana Republic territory. Waiting for Seattle to come and tell us how Rove is right and Romney has really won.

- icarus-r

November 6, 2012 at 11:40pm

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This is so awesome. Wonder how long it will take the Romney camp to concede.

- Sophia

November 6, 2012 at 11:41pm

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The Romney campaign is not prepared to concede - as of 1140. No timetable for a speech.

- icarus-r

November 6, 2012 at 11:43pm

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Florida and Virginia leaning to Obama - increasingly. Blowout. And Romney not conceding ... Seattle - where are you?

- icarus-r

November 6, 2012 at 11:46pm

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I read on the Political Wire that yesterday their internal polling showed them losing Ohio by 5 points to Obama. Their own internals! If true, I wonder why they are being stubborn.

- scrubby

November 6, 2012 at 11:47pm

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So, "Obama Care" won and Social Security is safe for another four years. Abortion rights will not be in jeopardy and neither will medicaid. The poor will not have to be afraid that their health care will be interrupted. What a great night.

- arnon1

November 6, 2012 at 11:47pm

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Romney is history and dead people can't get off the stage. They gotta be shoved off.

- arnon1

November 6, 2012 at 11:50pm

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Democrats need to work on regaining the House. It's shameful that they allowed the Republicans to gerrymander them out.

- arnon1

November 6, 2012 at 11:53pm

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Gerrymandering started in Mass in 1812. A mere hundred years ago.

- arnon1

November 6, 2012 at 11:56pm

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"....but ballot initiatives to legalize marijuana lead by a modest margin and appear likely to prevail." In Mass it was the medical used of the weed that passed. I was going to vote against it, but changed my mind at the last minute. Why shouldn't people with cancer or some other incurable disease not be able to relieve their pain? I am glad it passed.

- arnon1

November 7, 2012 at 12:02am

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"This was the real "World" Series." As a Tigers fan, I can verify that, arnon.

- magboy47.

November 7, 2012 at 12:03am

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"that ground game that he learned on the South Side of Chicago" ... this, from Fox News. So I guess the Community Organising thing did mean something after all ;) ... "concession speech from Mitt Romney, which inexplicably has not happened" ... again, Fox ... that's something ...

- icarus-r

November 7, 2012 at 12:04am

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Well done, icarus. I too await the appearance of seattle to explain to us how Nate Silver's final electoral map was spot on although the polls that are his data were, according to seattle and the wingnuts, all wrong and biased against Romney. He can also explain how it is the exit polls show the same differences in party self-ID that the opinion polls did although he and the wingnuts insisted Democrats were being over-represented and Republicans under-represented. These people refuse to credit evidence right before their eyes base on . . . nothing.

- roidubouloi

November 7, 2012 at 12:12am

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Obama doesn't need Ohio to win. The NY Times says that he won in VA and NV and these states together have more electoral voted than Ohio. So what the fuck Mr. Roomney. Get out of the way, buster.

- arnon1

November 7, 2012 at 12:12am

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"As a Tigers fan, I can verify that, arnon." My wife is a Tiger's fan, magboy. But only when the Red Sox are not playing. Me, I am a Mets fan so I don't get many chances to root for the winner.

- arnon1

November 7, 2012 at 12:15am

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Also, in the U.S. Senate -- Tammy Baldwin (WI), Elizabeth Warren (MA), and Joe Donnelly (IA). Pretty enjoyable victories too.

- ironyroad

November 7, 2012 at 12:17am

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The Indiana pick-up was the sweetest one of all.

- icarus-r

November 7, 2012 at 12:19am

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McCaskill!

- ReganaD

November 7, 2012 at 12:23am

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From the google politics map, it looks like the difference (so far) in FL and VA might be votes for Gary Johnson. How sweet it is. Maybe the repubs should have gone Libertarian instead of Tea this year?

- ReganaD

November 7, 2012 at 12:25am

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IL: threw out at least 5 GOP congresscritters including the odious Joe Walsh. Memo to Right Wing: your stuff loses elections.

- Sophia

November 7, 2012 at 12:36am

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Man, I'd be enjoying myself to no end if I were back in the USA watching this unfold with a tumblerful of Wild Turkey! As it is I've been at work all day sneaking updates on my phone. (And boyo is the Times cautious with its calls! I didn't realize it was over until I got in front of a tv set.) I'm pleased to see my native VA went the right way. The Times had it pink all day long, but that was prolly just 'cause good ole Hampton, my hometown, and the Commonwealth's hands-down richest source of Democratic votes was late to report. (To give you an idea, a scene from the past: Monday, March 30, 1981, Wythe Elementary School, Hampton VA. Sixth grader Kristin W is running down the stairs. "Reagan got shot! Reagan got shot!" she screams. "I hope he's dead!") Now I have to check through all the Senate races, but on first blush it looks like we Dems are doing as well or better than could be expected there too. It's a good day to be an American!

- AaronW

November 7, 2012 at 12:40am

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That toad Karl Rove was just on Fox and said that in his second term Obama has to move to the center--that he has said "no compromise." What an oinking liar that pig Rove is. And he is the heart and soul of the GOP.

- magboy47.

November 7, 2012 at 12:46am

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Exactly 90 minutes after the election was called - and no news of Romney. The man is a disgrace.

- icarus-r

November 7, 2012 at 12:47am

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Very happy to see Hitman Joe Walsh out, Sophia. The other Joe Walsh, the singer, said he was ashamed to share that attack dog's name.

- magboy47.

November 7, 2012 at 12:48am

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Romney is supposed to concede at 12:55 A.M. ET, a few minutes from now.

- magboy47.

November 7, 2012 at 12:49am

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Obama is a brilliant politician in the sense that, as a black man, he not only won 1 term, but 2! His ground game was matchless. But he will have a tough time in Term 2. A president always does. Romney has just called Obama. Off to watch his concession speech. How sweet that will be.

- magboy47.

November 7, 2012 at 12:54am

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Well, he did redeem himself. Even though Ryan looks like a twerp.

- icarus-r

November 7, 2012 at 1:01am

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Romney's concession speech was pure Mitt. Long on we, we, we, and short on facts. I don't think we have seen or heard the last of him. Like Nixon or a bad penny he'll keep showing up.

- arnon1

November 7, 2012 at 1:06am

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Woot. I go to bed tonight with a sense of relief that can hardly be exaggerated.

- austinous

November 7, 2012 at 1:08am

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magboy47 "Obama is a brilliant politician in the sense that, as a black man, he not only won 1 term, but 2! His ground game was matchless. But he will have a tough time in Term 2. A president always does." Mag is his usual pessimistic self. Relax, man he won't abolish health care and he won't try to reshape social security. He will not go after anti-Abortion legislation and he will not try to do those awful things the Romney-Ryan team wanted to unleash on us. That's something to be grateful, don't you think?

- arnon1

November 7, 2012 at 1:10am

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austinous, amen!

- arnon1

November 7, 2012 at 1:11am

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Nice concession speech by Romney. I think he might be relieved. I understand his wife wanted to be First Lady more than he wanted to be president. Maybe now that cash-heavy "job creators," who were waiting for Romney to be elected, will open up a bit and stimulate our economy. Whatever they do, we know that the Republicans in Congress will be apoplectic with rage. Gridlock City II. But that would have been the case, if Romney had been elected, too. The only thing I really feel good about is now that Romney is not our president, our economy may not crash again in the next few years. Let us pray.

- magboy47.

November 7, 2012 at 1:14am

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"Mag is his usual pessimistic self." arnon, I still predict that House Republicans will try to impeach Obama. Something always happens in a president's 2nd term. Even the Great God Reagan took it on the chin the second time around. But, hey, I'm looking forward to the battle, especially with Obama as the Commander-in-Chief.

- magboy47.

November 7, 2012 at 1:20am

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And I'm really happy that Obamacare will now kick in fully. Man, do we need it.

- magboy47.

November 7, 2012 at 1:36am

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"arnon, I still predict that House Republicans will try to impeach Obama." They will, they will, Magboy, but Obama has learned a thing or two from his previous encounter. I expect that he will be a log tougher this time and show the people what a bunch of ideologically obsessed maniacs they. They won't be able to hold Obama hostage anymore. I am looking forward to the battles that lie ahead. The Tea Party is toast.

- arnon1

November 7, 2012 at 1:38am

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So now the question is: What the heck is wrong with Gallup?

- jm3245

November 7, 2012 at 1:38am

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Let me quote Jackie Gleason, who was a Republican (but I still loved him): "How sweet it is!"

- magboy47.

November 7, 2012 at 2:17am

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What a wonderful speech by Obama. And talk about relieved. Also, uplifted - had we lost this it would have been a blow to the heart. And, many women were elected to Congress! One, Tammy Duckworth, a heroic veteran, another is the first openly gay woman (Senator Baldwin!) And those fools with rape issues were defeated. Praise the Lord! Except, Ryan's still in Congress. Well ya can't win 'em all. But this was an affirmation.

- Sophia

November 7, 2012 at 2:18am

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Yes what is up with Gallup. Hope the statisticians will have some ideas. ?

- Sophia

November 7, 2012 at 2:19am

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jm2345, actually the crosstabs for Gallup were not so far off, and their final poll was tied as of yesterday. It showed Romney racking up huge numbers in his states but losing in the swing states by a little. If Florida goes blue than Princeton election consortium and electoral vote.com would also have nailed the final results. I couldn't believe 332 was possible as Obama had to run most of the swing states, yet it looks like he did. In statisticians we trust I guess.

- blackton

November 7, 2012 at 2:38am

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Oh come on, blackton. Gallup moved a bit closer to the consensus at the very end, so as not to look like complete fools, but showing a tie and narrow losses in the swing states, virtually all of which Obama won, is WAAAAAAAAAAY off the mark when and where it matters. To call a tie in a close election is something you could do in your sleep and never be obviously wrong. What Gallup and Rasmussen do can no longer be considered legitimate opinion polling. They are frauds whose Republican bias has been apparent for months. Any bunch of polls I looked at, I added 2-3 to Rasmussen and 2 to Gallup right off the bat. THEN they lined up with the consensus. But isn't a good to have non-consensus views? Not where we are talking statistics. We don't need non-consensus views of whether the earth orbits the sun either. Or of whether the earth is warming. Or whether austerity is the cure for recession. Those are crackpot delusions. Worse, Rasmussen and Gallup gave just enough fodder to the wacko wingnut claims that the multitude of other polls were biased against Romney. Nate Silver has shown them all for fools. His electoral map, based on the polling averages, adjusted to account for the weaknesses of particular polls, was perfect. The wingnuts are just that, nuts. Just look at Karl Rove, arguing with reality after it is over. Listen to the parched concession speech of Romney. It is clear that he actually thought he was going to win. Sorry Ann, no White House for you. Any time seattle would like to rise from his election-shock coma, confess error, and promise to abandon his reality/evidence/fact-challenged ways, we are all ears. Surely there must be a 12-step program somewhere for people addicted to fantasy over reality. Seattle, the reality-based community is ready to welcome you if you will but give up wingnutty abuse of evidence and facts.

- roidubouloi

November 7, 2012 at 8:17am

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Where's seattle? I need someone to tell me I just don't get the figures and that if I had a clue I'd see that Romney actually won.

- ironyroad

November 7, 2012 at 11:14am

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He is in mourning.

- Sophia

November 7, 2012 at 1:50pm

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Political Wire has a piece linked here at TNR that rates the pollsters for accuracy. PPP first place. Gallup and Rasmussen, tied for 24 out of 28. Seattle will no doubt turn up eventually to explain why those rankings for accuracy are all wrong. He is not mourning, he is in a coma induced by shock. FWIW, I think Romney thought he was going to win because he was drinking the wingnut Koolaid. He had the momentum (not), he was in the lead (not), the polls were all biased against him (not), Nate Silver (and the eight other poll aggregators) were biased against him (not). It is for the good. The might have run a better campaign and made it closer if they had not believed the wingnut nuttery that they were winning. All hail Plouffe and Axelrod!

- roidubouloi

November 7, 2012 at 5:23pm

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