ELECTIONATE DECEMBER 13, 2012
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Most up-and-coming politicians are coy when asked about their political future, but Cory Booker couldn’t have been more eager to announce on Sunday's "Face the Nation" that he was “absolutely considering running for governor” of New Jersey. The very next day, the Newark mayor declared that New Jersey’s incumbent Governor Chris Christie was “vulnerable,” even though recent polls show Christie’s approval ratings approaching 70 percent in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Surely Booker wouldn’t take to national television to muse about his prospects in a potentially epic contest without some optimistic reporting from his advisors, who know as well as anyone that the key to victory is as simple as it is challenging: win Democrats.
Booker’s opportunity and Christie’s vulnerability are based on one important, obvious fact about New Jersey: It’s a blue state. Obama won it last month by 18 points, and the exit polls showed that 44 percent of voters identified as Democrats, a formidable18-point advantage over self-identified Republicans. While that margin is probably lower in an off-year electorate, a Republican candidate in New Jersey needs to win about 20 percent of self-identified Democrats and a similar percentage of voters who cast ballots for Democratic candidates in presidential elections. That's why Republicans struggle in statewide races: No GOP candidate has eclipsed 50 percent of the vote in a gubernatorial, senatorial, or presidential contest since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Prior to Hurricane Sandy, polls showed Booker close to Christie in a hypothetical matchup. An October Quinnipiac poll had Christie with a four point lead, 46 to 42, but Booker’s path to 50 percent was pretty clear. Most undecided voters were Democrats, women, and black, so it was easy to see how a popular Democrat with an extraordinary 52-13 favorability rating would win an outsized share of the remaining voters, especially with 35 percent of voters still not knowing enough to formulate an opinion of Booker.
After Sandy, the question is whether Christie’s post-hurricane popularity can overcome the state’s partisan make-up. Recent polls show Christie with an impressive approval rating around 70 percent and big leads against some possible Democratic challengers. Christie’s strong ratings are driven by big gains among New Jersey Democrats, with approximately half of Democrats approving of Christie’s performance in recent Quinnipiac, PPP, and Rutgers surveys. And Democrats don’t just approve of Christie, they’re willing to vote to re-elect him against certain opponents: More than two-fifths of Democrats say they would support Christie against lesser-known candidates like Lou Greenwald or Barbara Buono, who entered the race earlier today.
But Christie isn’t converting his high approval ratings among Democrats into the same level of support against the more popular Booker. The three post-Sandy surveys show Christie at 50, 53, and 53 percent of the vote in a hypothetical match-up against Booker, giving him a big lead over Booker's tallies in the mid- to upper- thirties. But most undecided voters are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents and the reluctance of 47 percent of New Jersey voters to support Christie at the peak of his popularity suggests the potential for a close race, should Booker run. Nonetheless, 53 percent is good enough for victory, and usually an incumbent at 50-plus percent of the vote wouldn’t be considered especially vulnerable.
Christie’s current 53 percent showing hinges on holding 20 to 27 percent of New Jersey Democrats, and that makes him more vulnerable than most candidates holding 53 percent of the vote—especially if his popularity falls from its post-Sandy peak, as expected. If Booker runs, it’s because his advisors believe that Christie is conservative enough for a compelling Democratic candidate like Booker to sweep undecided, Democratic-leaning voters who approve of Christie’s performance and to roll back Christie’s support among Democrats who switched from undecided to Christie following Hurricane Sandy. On CNN yesterday, Booker hinted at the outlines of such a campaign, when he charged that Christie wasn’t “in line” with the state on women’s issues, the environment, and “really going in a balanced way.”
If he has serious presidential ambitions for 2016, Christie might be reluctant to endanger his conservative credentials by moving left, making it harder for him to assuage the concerns of moderate New Jersey Democrats. Christie's personal popularity gives him plenty of leeway against less appealing Democratic opponents, but a nationally known Democrat like Cory Booker who can win over Democratic-leaning swing voters might be able to turn the campaign into a referendum on Democratic wedge issues. Given that many more Democratic voters refrain from embracing Christie in polls that specify Booker as the alternative, one wonders whether the possibility of a close race comes down to whether Booker fulfills his own promise. If he proves as formidable as glowing national coverage makes him seem, then it's easy to imagine him attracting the Democratic-leaning voters necessary to contest a close election worthy of its billing.
10 comments
Booker would be much better off going for the soon to be vacated Senate seat in New Jersey. So would New Jersey, and the Democrats nationally.
- Robert Powell
December 13, 2012 at 3:23am
Totally agreed RP. This is a good case, but the fact is, Booker would get clobbered by Christie. Booker would be a great Senator, he should reconsider his plans.
- WandreyCer
December 13, 2012 at 5:46am
Isn't Lautenberg expected to retire in 2014, and if he does, don't most political insiders in NJ believe that Booker will run for the Senate in 2014 rather than for governor in 2013 against Christie? If that's correct, 2016 could shape up to be the year of New Jersey, with Christie running for president on the Republican side and Booker on the Democratic side. I have my doubts about Booker as a national candidate, or even a state-wide candidate. Have you been to Newark? And won't Christie have similar baggage? What will he be, the Sopranos candidate?
- rayward
December 13, 2012 at 6:34am
Christie has broad appeal (Americans can't get enough of the Sopranos, Jerseyness, etc) and some smart moves on policy - the idiocy and waste of the drug war for one and a refusal to countenance bigotry against his nominees. He lies on anything financial, but most people don't care about that do they? Christie also has the rare distinction for a modern Republican of being highly intelligent. He can also take on the tea party bullies with even bigger, louder and more pitiless bombast and Americans will love it. The crazies may even fall in line. Both New Jersey Dems and R's are middle of the roaders. He's got a good future. I agree that Booker comes across as a regional vanity candidate. He's done a good job in Newark considering, yes I have been to Newark quite a bit actually. It's got its moments and he's a good man with concrete accomplishments. He also works his ever lovin tuckus off, so we'll see. I wish him well.
- WandreyCer
December 13, 2012 at 8:04am
But think about it ray and RP: Christie is pressured against the National Republican platform since he clearly wants to run in 2016 or maybe 2020. Booker is right in the middle of his party and is the only Democrat who can give Christie a challenge in 2013. Obviously, Christie's numbers are experiencing a swoon right now, but if after a year the Jersey Shore isn't back, the response to Sandy will probably be judged wanting. And this is before we even consider that NJ has had one of the worst state economic recoveries, even though Christie was all about jump-starting the economy. Booker is speaking social issues to begin a pincer motion against Christie's national ambitions, but he can easily switch to an economic argument and throw in a little bit of health care if he wants. The true test of political ambition is whether one can convert a risky opportunity into an against-the-odds hard-fought win. If Booker can take down Christie in 2013, he might even vault ahead of Deval Patrick in the ranks of black politicians who can take up the mantle after Obama vacates the presidency.
- chaitless
December 13, 2012 at 8:24am
I could see it as a very expensive dual strategy chaitless--plan on folding the probably losing gubernatorial campaign into the senatorial one a year later against likely weak opposition. If NJ Dems can raise the money for what would essentially be a three-year campaign for a relatively safe Democrat Senate seat, it's an argument. Booker's a good guy, anything's possible, but I think Fatboy is the King of New Jersey unless he starts running for president too soon. Which he's not going to do.
- Robert Powell
December 13, 2012 at 12:00pm
I see Christie as the biggest obstacle to democrats in 2016. To that end, it's important that the democrats field a strong challenger against him in the gubernatorial race so that he can't track right in order to survive the GOP presidential primaries. Christie infuriated the conservative base through his handling of Sandy, and he'll need to pick silly battles with Obama and the democrats down the road if he wants to overcome that issue. he won't be able to with Booker attacking him from the center. I like Booker, and I think he will survive politically in the long run even if he loses a narrow race to Christie. I hope he runs for governor.
- rusty
December 13, 2012 at 2:38pm
I think Chaitless is right, unemployment is still very high in Jersey, and if the shore takes too long to get up to speed the summer will be a disaster for NJ. Christie was pretty shrewd embracing Obama so publicly and not remotely unafraid to hold out his hand for federal money, however I don't know how that could help him if he runs for President. I also agree with RP and that Booker should go for the Senate. He could be well positioned for a run in either 2020 or 2024 (depending on who wins in 2016) for the WH as either a VP or Presidential candidate.
- blackton
December 13, 2012 at 4:55pm
I'm amazed by TNR's soft coverage of Christie and your readers' acquien. He is a blustering bully who humiliates citizens at "town hall" meetings and lucked onto the NJ governor's job, which is constitutionally a powerful job. He can partial veto anything passed by the legislature. Everybody has been forced to play nice with him. He's another Republican dead set against increased taxes for the rich. He grandstands all the time. His idea of public investment is subsidies for racetracks and yet more shopping malls. I can understand Cory Booker wanting to get out of Newark and South Jersey boss George Norcross's boy Steve Sweeney wants to move up from the state senate, but there is already a declared candidate for the Democratic nomination for governor: Barbara Buono, an accomplished state legislator: Buono for Governor.
- amidut
December 18, 2012 at 6:28am
Substitute "acquiescence" for "aquien" in my previous post!
- amidut
December 18, 2012 at 6:31am