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Go Home Paul Ryan's First Republican Victim?

JONATHAN CHAIT MAY 9, 2011

Paul Ryan's First Republican Victim?

BY JONATHAN CHAIT

Polls have showed a tightening race in the special election for Congress in New York. Now, for the first time, a PPP poll has Democrat Kathy Hochul pulling ahead of Republican incumbent (and hilarious parody target) Jane Corwin. Hochul has been pounding Corwin on her support for the Republican budget, making a sleeper district that Republican won with 73% of the vote in 2010, and 55% of the vote in 2008, surprisingly competitive.

There is one unusual factor at work here -- a third-party candidacy by former Democrat-turned-Tea Party populist Jack Davis that's pulling support from Corwin. Still, Hochul is now viewed more favorably (46-40) than Corwin (39-42). If Hochul pulls this out, it will exert a huge influence over the Congressional landscape. Democrats even in unfriendly districts will have a viable plan to unseat Republican incumbents. Meanwhile, Republicans, who have been riding high on ideological hubris, will suddenly come face to face with some cold political reality. Conservatives have spent the last two years convincing each other that their only mistake under President Bush was to abandon conservative purity, and that they were coming back since 2009 due to the popularity of their agenda, rather than due to the good fortune of being the out party during an economic crisis. Their vote for the Ryan budget was a product of this wild overconfidence. Republicans in Congress will probably get a lot more gun shy now.

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8 comments

I'm not usually as Machiavellian as all this, but it'll be a damned shame if some early results like this cause the Republicans to get smart and pull back. I'm ready to see them crucified.

- IowaBeauty

May 9, 2011 at 3:21pm

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I'm hoping Corwin loses and the Republicans come to the conclusion that the reason they lost was because they didn't go far enough. That has been their guiding principle when it comes to tax cuts. They should try it every time something causes them to lose an election.

- Nusholtz

May 9, 2011 at 3:28pm

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Could it be that the post has the additional attraction of describing an election district in New York State that is close to the dreaded......Ohio?

- Doug12

May 9, 2011 at 3:43pm

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Pardon me if I seem Panglossian about this, but doesn't a close loss for Hochul also provide a game plan for Democrats in Republican districts? A strategy that limits Corwin's margin of victory to single digits will probably be good enough to beat a GOP incumbent in a less-strongly Republican district as well.

- benjamin81

May 9, 2011 at 3:56pm

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I'm with both Iowa and Nush on this one.

- GSpinks

May 9, 2011 at 7:51pm

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Heighten the contradictions! Contra you Marxists, I say let's have some reasonableness on the starboard side.

- liberalref

May 10, 2011 at 8:32am

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Took a look at that parody site. Wow, it really hurts to belly-laugh and wince at the same time.

- cspencef

May 10, 2011 at 10:14am

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It's not really relevant, but Jane Corwin is not the incumbent. She is currently a member of the New York State Assembly.

- jonrysh

May 10, 2011 at 2:08pm

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