JONATHAN CHAIT JANUARY 20, 2010
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The headline on the New York Times this morning reads, "GOP Senate Victory Stuns Democrats." Literally speaking, this is utterly false. I know many people who are plugged into Democratic circles, and every indication I had was that the party expected to lose last night -- probably by a much, much wider margin than they actually did. In this sense there was no surprise.
But in a broader sense, it's true. Even though the result, in some ways, exceeded their worst expectations, Democrats have responded as if they were stunned. Human psychology is like that. It's one thing to know you're about to get dumped when your girlfriend says we need to talk. It's another to experience it when it happens.
Still, it's fairly amazing to me to see the Democrats reacting with such hysteria. It's not just moderates trying to position themselves to the center. Barney Frank and Anthony Weiner are acting like pathetic, emotional cowards. They seem to think that one very attractive candidate beating a hapless foe amounts to a national referendum to which every other member of Congress is bound.
Remember when Ted Kennedy died? For a couple days, everybody thought this was somehow going to change the fundamental dynamics of health care reform, that even Republicans would rally to the cause of their late colleague's life. I am not claiming any special genius to note that I found this unbelievably naive. The fundamentals of the situation had not changed. What mattered was who had the votes. And now, the Republicans are trying to take advantage of Kennedy's death to kill reform. Fundamentals, not the emotion of the moment, are what matter.
The fundamentals of the situation remain exactly the same. Most Americans oppose health care reform. However, a significant chunk -- enough to form a sizable majority when combined with supporters -- oppose it because it doesn't go far enough. Which is to say, the Democrats' position commands the center in a polarized atmosphere. Moreover, both chambers have already voted for a bill and set themselves up to be attacked for tax hikes, Medicare cuts and all the rest. The only chance the Democrats have to change that perception is to pass the bill, so that it can be explained in the context of success rather than as a tar baby subjected to endless criticism. If they let it die, they not only keep all the baggage of their votes, but they add a general stench of failure and profound demoralization of the base to their burdens. That would be a recipe not just to lose the House but to lose 50, 60, 80 seats.
Here is what I think will happen. The shock and panic will play itself out over a few days. Then the Democrats will assess the situation and realize that letting health care die represents their worst possible option. And then they will make a deal to pass the Senate bill through the House. I am not positive this will happen, but it's my bet, because elected officials at the national level, dim though they can be, are usually shrewd enough to recognize their political self-interest.
In the meantime, the display of hysteria is actually disgusting.
13 comments
I don't know Jon. This was after all, f-ing MA. And they knew that by defeating the hapless Coakley, they would kill Health Care. They moidered it anyway. I say there is a time to hold them and a time to fold them. I strongly suggest that it is now time to fold them. The country just doesn't want health care reform and are willing to let an entrenched minority defeat it to maintain a status quo that screws everyone except the health insurers. A bitter pill to swallow yes but how can you avoid making this assessment given what is in front of us?
- MrCookie1
January 20, 2010 at 9:53am
The headline on the New York Times this morning reads, "GOP Senate Victory Stuns Democrats." Literally speaking, this is utterly false. What, you're saying that no Democrats were literally stunned by the GOP Senate victory? I've seen them lying tasered all over the streets here!
- wildboy
January 20, 2010 at 10:01am
Forgive me if I suggest that readers ignore Chait (usually a good idea) and call their Dem congressmen (including senators) and tell them the House better damn well pass the senate bill. Because while this outcome is possible, it's NOT likely, not anymore.
- Lymon1
January 20, 2010 at 10:31am
Personal ad: Party without backbone seeks homeless spine! Goal: Politics.
- ironyroad
January 20, 2010 at 11:13am
Lymon, why ignore Chait? He agrees, right? Cookie, this bill is the whole point. Doing this is why we vote the way we do; why we care about politics. If Democrats let this opportunity pass, they're not worth saving and we'll never get another chance for the foreseeable future, and if they pass it, and fail later at the polls, they will have enacted the most important piece of social legislation since Medicare. Besides, people are being incredibly shortsighted on this thing and wildly exaggerating the political pitfalls. The media is making a fetish out of the Massachusetts election. It's one election in one state where our side put up a lousy candidate. It's as if all the other side has to do is behave like a bunch of lunatics, and they can get their way, even after the '08 election. Think about it. If Democrats "fold 'em," it means that a party that doesn't control the White House, and that holds historically tiny minorities in the House and Senate are still running this country. Fuck that. Seriously, fuck that. That's obscene.
- jhildner1
January 20, 2010 at 11:33am
Jonathan, What you miss in this analysis is the fact that a lot of House Dems don't actually like the bill (for a whole mix of varying reasons). The political calculus of re-election may be motivating some of them, but more importantly the MA election gives them an excuse for discarding the bonds of party fealty and voting their conscience. And remember, it only takes a handful of votes to block this in the House.
- dtohmatsu
January 20, 2010 at 12:26pm
Though the fat lady has yet to be heard from re: the product Project Healthcare Reform promises to deliver the day after healthcare reform actually passes, I won't be surprised if, at the moment of decision Congress elects instead to postpone delivery indefinitely, again. I don't think it's defeatist to admit defeat, even now. It was and remains a noble cause, but the outcome of this battle will not ultimately decide the fate of healthcare reform as an idea and ideal. A loss is a loss, but we have only failed to secure the bridge too far. The fight for reform will be far from over - even if the bill miraculously does pass - the same forces opposing a victory will still have to be contended with, and they will only become the more determined to reverse or undermine reform, at any cost.
- Tgossard
January 20, 2010 at 1:14pm
dtohmatsu: I don't like the bill either. But it's a hell of lot better than nothing, and failure isn't an option. If some Democrats are actually opposed to health care reform, as opposed to this particular bill, fine. Otherwise, "conscience" dictates pasasge, not out of party fealty, but because the alternative is no health care reform for the foreseeable future. There's no story I can see that provides another chance. This is it. This or nothing; now or never. It's that simple.
- jhildner1
January 20, 2010 at 1:14pm
Tgoassard: No, if it can't get down now, with 60 votes in the Senate and a huge majority in the House, it's close to proof positive that it will never get done. You can go on about fighting the good fight all you want, but there comes a time when you actually have to get something done, and this is as good as we can possibly muster. When do you see another chance? How do you suppose it will come about? If you support health care reform, there's only one position position you can hold that is consistent with that support: Enact it now. Some liberals never liked the compromise, and they are using the vote in Massachusetts as an excuse to back away. But their opposition now is as short-sighted as the left blogosphere's pronouncements that this bill is worse than nothing. Allowing health care reform to fail yet again, under the best of circumstances, would be a monumental disgrace.
- jhildner1
January 20, 2010 at 1:22pm
Tgoassard: No, if it can't get down now, with 60 votes in the Senate and a huge majority in the House, it's close to proof positive that it will never get done. You can go on about fighting the good fight all you want, but there comes a time when you actually have to get something done, and this is as good as we can possibly muster. When do you see another chance? How do you suppose it will come about? If you support health care reform, there's only one position position you can hold that is consistent with that support: Enact it now. Some liberals never liked the compromise, and they are using the vote in Massachusetts as an excuse to back away. But their opposition now is as short-sighted as the left blogosphere's pronouncements that this bill is worse than nothing. Allowing health care reform to fail yet again, under the best of circumstances, would be a monumental disgrace.
- jhildner1
January 20, 2010 at 1:22pm
I'm fine with the compromise, and it would be fine if there were a way to pass the bill but not incurring the (I think legitimate) indignation and wrath of the very constituency we have been trying to sell this to. But at this point I don't see how forcing-feeding the bill to the public if the votes are no longer there. They were just barely there as it was going into yesterday's Mass. election, and now they simply are not. It's a hard but a bare fact we have to find another way to get perhaps some parts of the bill passed. Or, if Republicans won't let that happen now, and I don't see how they would let anything happen until Scott what's-his-name makes it comfortably to his seat in the Senate, has a cup of coffee and a smoke, yawns and (disingenuously) asks "well, guys, let's take a look at that bill now...after lunch,' they probably also won't let any part of the bill pass until the self-same W'ts-s-name etc. I think it's a dead deal and best to admit it and, yes, swallow it if it's what's to be anyway, get dead drunk for the next two weeks, don't show up until mid-February if Repubs proceed to stall on bank(s) reform. I think we can still get some payback, but unfortunately, no win on healthcare. Sorry.
- Tgossard
January 20, 2010 at 6:04pm
Tgossard- Why do you think the votes are no longer there? All we need is that a simple majority of the House accepts the Senate bill, and the bill passes. And while a majority of the House may not like the Senate bill, there are plenty of reasons for them to nevertheless accept it. Indeed, even before Coakley's loss, there was far from a guarantee that all 60 democratic senators would vote for a bill modified by compromises with the House. If one really believes that the Senate bill is worse than nothing, then, fine, they should oppose it. Otherwise, we should still push for its passage in any way that is procedurally possible. I agree with Jhildner; to let the bill be defeated by a minority party of obstructionist liars would be unconscionable.
- dhurtado
January 20, 2010 at 9:00pm
Tgossard, I'm sorry, what planet are you living on? There is a way to pass the bill. Just vote for the Senate bill. It's already passed! Over a filibuster! That doesn't count? The votes are obviously there if House Democrats get their heads out of their asses and grab what has been handed to them on a silver platter. No, we can't do that, because that would offend Mitch McConnell, who runs the country apparently, with all 41 of his Senate votes. It's not force-feeding, it's not tyranny. It's *governing*. It's leadership. People are pissed about jobs and the economy. Obama could do more on that if not for Republican recalcitrance. As it stands, the jobs picture will turn around, and popular opinion with it. Is it a shocker that voters are morons who don't know shit? They like the public option and vote for Scott Brown. What's the message there? Me no like economy, ga ga, goo goo. Sorry, that's obvious. People are not experts on policy. They're impatient and ignorant. But they are decent and can be brought around. That's what Obama should have been doing all this time, and what he can still do when it comes to health care reform. But short-sighted pussy Democrats like you are too afraid to pull the trigger. Not pulling the trigger is worse. We'll lose in November, because we'll deserve to lose, because we will be seen as the ineffectual pussies we are. Democrats don't deserve to win if they can't actually accomplish anything, especially when it's handed to them. If health care fails, people will look back and say, What the fuck were you thinking? And I'll say, fuck if I know, ask Tgoassard.
- jhildner1
January 20, 2010 at 10:35pm