THE FLACK OCTOBER 1, 2008
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"Live from St. Louis, it's Thursday night!"
Gov. Sarah Palin isn't likely to open the debate that way, but the public could be excused if they expected her to. After all, in the last week we have seen more of Tina Fey's "Saturday Night Live" imitation of Sarah Palin than we have of the Governor herself. That will finally change, when Gov. Palin steps out on the big stage and debates Sen. Joe Biden.What must Gov. Palin do to make Americans forget Fey's send-up and demonstrate she is ready to lead? What must Sen. Biden do to avoid gaffes of his own and win the debate, as he is expected to?The short answers: Gov. Palin needs to demonstrate a real understanding of complex issues. Simple talking points won't cut it. She needs to make clear she grasps the difficult policy challenges that the next administration will confront. if she doesn't the debate will quickly turn into her own version of Thursday Night Live.
Sen. Biden's burden is the opposite. We all know he understands the issues. Instead he has to connect with Americans, making the case against JohnMcCain without condescending to Gov. Palin and angering female voters. (He will not, for instance, be calling her "Sarah")Gov. Palin's debut on the public stage was very strong, especially her convention speech. Americans found her biography appealing and liked what they heard about her tenure as Governor. Most importantly, they related to her and concluded she understood them.Since then, as style has given way to substance, it's been all downhill. Her media interviews have been lackluster at best, embarrassing at worst, raising serious questions about her ability to step in as President if tragedy were to strike Sen. McCain. She is at risk of becoming a permanent caricature.Even conservatives have begun raising doubts about her. As a result the McCain campaign has sequestered her in preparation for the big night.To have a chance, Gov. Palin must first do two things: Demonstrate that she is ready to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency and aggressively make the case against Barack Obama. Neither will be easy: She will have to demonstrate a facility with issues that she has thus far been lacking, and will have to attack Sen. Obama without invoking the issue of experience, since it's not exactly a strong suit of hers either.If Gov. Palin clears those two hurdles, passing a third would score the trifecta: Getting under Sen. Biden's skin and forcing him to act obnoxiously towards her.For his part, Sen. Biden doesn't need to prove he is ready to step in as President - voters don't have any real doubts about that. His challenge is to resist taking Palin's bait. Sen. Biden is too smart to appear angry with Gov. Palin - and, as he has said repeatedly, he's comfortable debating strong women, including my former boss Hillary Clinton. So he is unlikely to charge her podium waving and yelling at her like Rick Lazio did to Sen. Clinton in 2000.He will need to work harder to avoid eye rolling and condescension when Gov. Palin claims geographic proximity to Russia as a foreign policy credential. He will have to let the public make up its own mind about her performance. Instead, he should train his fire on McCain - remembering that his goal isn't to disqualify Sarah Palin (she may welldo that on her own) but to make the case against a McCain presidency.Both should be ready with some self-deprecating humor. If Gov. Palin is asked about all the jokes at her expense she can say: "Well, you should see my imitation of Tina Fey." Joe Biden will no doubt be prepared with a quip about his own verbosity.Perhaps most importantly overall, they both need to explain the economic crisis gripping America and what their ticket would do in the White House to solve it. Gov. Palin's explanation of the crisis in her interview with Katie Couric was nearly as painful as the meltdown itself. She needs to redeem herself. Sen. Biden needs to avoid Senate-speak and break the problem and the solution down for average voters.Americans are hungering for leadership in these very tough times. So far they have gotten it from Barack Obama. Whoever succeeds in providing it tonight will have gone a long way towards winning this pivotal debate. Here's betting that it's Sen. Biden -- both on the merits of the case and the ability to deliver it.
Howard Wolfson also blogs at GothamAcme.com
9 comments
I've taken the line kgrant has taken in other threads. I think Palin will do well in the spotlight and deliver a vice presidential performance. Let's not sell her short. Obama-Biden hasn't, we shouldn't either.
- jet
October 2, 2008 at 8:35am
I like the optimism, Mr. Wolfson. I share it. All of this talk about how well Palin will do, and how Biden is sure to fuck up, has been tired since Monday. People forget that Biden has a great personality of his own. Palin may have a few good one-liners, but that's not what the debate will turn on. She cannot cutesy her way out of her current predicament. She needs to completely reconstruct her public identity, and at this point that will take more than a flawless debate.
- ralphnelle
October 2, 2008 at 11:54am
You bet ralph - if you want adorable, look no farther than Joe B.
Even if he's saying something impolitic, you cannot help but like the guy (unless you're Guiliani of course).
He's a funny, highly effective advocate for our party and its policies. He's so thoroughly knowledgable that it flows naturally, this stuff is a part of him. There's not a phony note to the guy. Palin attacking him with canned nonsense that everyone on tha planet knows she just learned five minutes ago - will backfire.
Bill Clinton is right, America is going to love Joe Biden.
- Wandreycer1
October 2, 2008 at 1:24pm
www.charlierose.com/.../a-conversation-with-governors-janet-napolitano-sarah-palin
Just a little bit of a warning shot. She will probably turn everything back to what she knows, when asked a question about education she talked about energy and how the oil dollars could help finance improved education.
If they slip her a lude and she is relaxed she can be fine.
- blackton
October 2, 2008 at 1:44pm
I really hope Biden follows the path laid out for him.
- miceelf
October 2, 2008 at 3:22pm
blackton,
I agree that Palin will try to turn everything back to something she knows something about, but I just don't think she knows a lot about anything. The attempt to stuff her head fully of information at the last minute will not work like it did in her Alaskan debates because the area that will be covered in a Vice Presidential debate is just too broad and she apparently does not even have a basic 8th grade understanding of national issues.
I'm having a difficult time seeing how she is going to get away with spinning person stories and continually talking about energy production for a full 90 minutes worth of debating without her index cards. She couldn't even make it through the piece by piece and bit by bit questioning from Couric. I think everyone neglects to notice that as was pointed out by her debate opponent Halcon, Palin cluctched her index cards closely to her throughout her Alaskan debates. They were her lifelines. In fact, when you look closely at the Couric interviews, Palin starts looking down whenever she gets a question she does not know the answer to as if her index cards are in her lap. I've seen posters ask whether or not she had notes during the Couric interview (she did not) because of this glancing down.
Tonight Palin will be operating without a net about topics completely foreign to her after days of being grilled by McCain people trying to get her up to speed. Speaking of this grilling, don't you think Palin must be feeling pretty demoralized right now? Think about it. I can't help but think that the people trying to prepare Palin for this debate who are no doubt hyper-intelligent people must be completely shocked by her level of ignorance. So shocked that they cannot help but display their shock on their faces and in their behavior towards her (there has to have been the inevitable scream, "But I've already told you that fact six times!"). Palin is thick, but she is not so thick that she doesn't recognize her handlers absolute shock and probable disgust at her ignorance. All of this makes for a very ego shattering experience. Now after this grilling Palin will have to go before the entire world and convince American voters she has the confidence and knowledge to be the leader of the free world. I'm sorry, but I can't help but see an epic disaster in the making. I wouldn't be surprised if she refuses to take the stage.
However, I think the worst that could happen is that she goes out there and does a passable job. If she is able to do that I will really be terrified because anyone of her shocking level of ignorance whose ignorance has already been exposed and ridiculed as it has been thus far throughout the media (she must know she is a national laughingstock), who has verylittle real experience to rely on to support her own ego, who would still presume to think they should be VP, and who is still able to confidently express this presumption to a national audience in a debate is a frightening person indeed! We all should be shaking in our boots that such an obvious case of Narcissitic Personality Disorder would be allowed to come anywhere near the level of power of POTUS.
- woland
October 2, 2008 at 3:48pm
woland, I don't disagree, but looking at the Rose interviews I truly can't connect that person from then with the babbling idiot with Couric. That person has to be there somewhere, she has been on the stage in more ways then one (Governor, broadcaster, beauty contestant), if they slip her a lude and she just relaxes she might do a passable job.
I do think you are being a little harsh to her, she was a big fish in a very small pond for a long time, and while Governor might seem like the big leagues, nothing compares to this, however this is just one 90 minute ordeal, half Joe, maybe 1/5th Gwen, that leaves only around 35 minutes, and this is 35 minutes covering a lot of territory. Be prepared for a passable job.
- blackton
October 2, 2008 at 5:52pm
I've read Michelle Cottle's piece on why she thinks Palin will surprise and overperform tonight and, while she makes some interesting points, I'm not sold. Yes, the expectations bar has been set low, but I don't think that simply getting through the 90 minutes without falling off the stage will be scored as a "win" for her at this point, at least among the undecided voters who really matter at this point.
The fact is that the Couric meltdown (and the lackluster inverviews before it) have created a frame in which Palin's basic competency (and by extension, McCain's judgement in picking her) is being called into question. Various polls are showing 50-60% of voters don't think she is up to the job.
GIven that, I don't think "likeability", just being able to tell folksy stories and get off some good one-liners, lik is going to be enough. THat's what she did in the Alaska debates, and it might have been enough had her fundamental qualifications not been so seriously questioned.
I don't think voters need to see her be able to cite the names of various world leaders. But unless she is able to show some kind of comfort level discussing national issues, with at least "some measure of specificity, I think voters will feel like they are just being BSed, and that won't go well for her at all.
- tjlinko
October 2, 2008 at 5:54pm
Palin will finally demonstrate her superior knowledge of the issues and her unequaled preparedness for the Vice-Presidency, and, indeed, the Presidency. She's a master debater with uncanny skill in making her opponent bluster. Joe Biden is a fake, a charlatan, who has only gotten this far by repeating endless strings of nonsense. He will not be able to hold up under the pressure. This debate will prove, once and for all, that only one candidate in this race is qualified, and that candidate is Sarah Palin.
That's what you meant to say. My *expectation* is that's how it will play out.
- guyminuslife
October 2, 2008 at 6:39pm