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Go Home Showdown In Little Tehran

THE PLANK JANUARY 19, 2007

Showdown In Little Tehran

I'm sure most readers have seen this New York Times headline: "REBUKE IN IRAN TO ITS PRESIDENT ON NUCLEAR ROLE." It seems that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, now wants Mahmoud Ahmadinejad "to stay out of all matters nuclear." As with all things in Iranian politics, the move's hard to decipher: Does Khamenei actually want to defuse tensions with the West, or is he just trying to improve Iran's public image? Ever since the United Nations slapped sanctions on Iran last month, Khamenei has stayed rather reticent about his country's nuclear program--only once insisting that the country would relinquish it--and Ali Larijani, the country's chief nuclear negotiator, has also sounded somewhat less inflammatory.

The Guardian had a more detailed report about all this on Tuesday, noting that 150 members of Parliament have sharply criticized Ahmadinejad--both for getting embroiled in a dispute with the UN Security Council and for running the economy into the ground. (Relatedly, Robert Stern, an economist at Johns Hopkins, has recently argued that Iran's oil economy is facing something of a "death spiral.")

It would be easy to read too much into this--no one thinks that Iran's ready to surrender its nuclear program and make nice with the United States just because a bunch of MPs are pissed at Ahmadinejad--but it's a reminder that in some respects, at least, Iran is much like any other country, with its own concerns and political disputes, not just single-mindedly obsessed with the destruction of Israel and the West. The former, recall, is basically the view of those who think the United States ought to try talking with Iran, rather than whatever hostilities the White House is trying to provoke right now. It's also a reminder that Ahmadinejad, however wacky he may be, has much less power than often assumed--and may even be on his way out.

--Bradford Plumer

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that for all of Ahmadinejad's bluster, he has much less actual power than the American media or public (or Marty) gives him credit for. Just like Khatami before him, he can say anything he wants but Khamanei is ultimately in control. Unlike Khatami, he's a blowhard, but he's still mostly just blowing smoke.

- jfabermit

January 19, 2007 at 11:23am

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While it's useful to remember Ahmadinejad is still beholden to Khamanei, this does not mean Iran in general is like other countries. Iran's significant difference from other countrues is their support of Hizbollah and their behavior towards America & Israel. Most countries do not have independant armies covertly attacking other countries and undermining their host countries. They are not taking beligerent positions towards western nations. Until Iran decides to rein in Hizbollah and stop their Nuclear Program, they should not be considered normal and worth talking to. Iran is working towards isolating themselves from the rest of the world and these actions reinforce that. One of the tactics the Islamic Terrorist use to make their case is Moral Equivalence. That Israel killed our fighters, so Hizbollah can kill Israeli Citizens. This is not the same. Israel discriminates against people on the basis of criminal behavior, not race, creed or sexual orientation, as does America. We need to be clear with Iran that we will not talk with them until they stop their dangerous behavior. Clear communication helps them understand us, and us to understand them. I think the Military Build Up is causing Khamenei to re-think his support of Ahmadinejad, not a change of heart. Bush should maintain this clear communication that we will continue our military preperations to protect our interests until Iran understands this.

- CRS9TNR

January 20, 2007 at 3:04pm

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