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Go Home What if Hillary Had Won?

THE PLANK NOVEMBER 3, 2009

What if Hillary Had Won?

BY MICHAEL CROWLEY

Interesting thought experiment from Slate's Double X. Emily Bazelon says that much would have been the same substantively, but:

One specific counter-prediction: If Hillary were president, we'd either have more troops on the way to Afghanistan by now or we wouldn't. She wouldn't have taken her time to ruminate the way Obama is doing, because the barbs about weakness and dithering would have sunk in deeper.

I think we almost surely would have more troops on the way. I don't think dithering would have been the issue for Hillary so much as the fact that her instincts are simply more hawkish than Obama's, something I wrote about at length in early 2007, and I like to think the piece holds up. We don't know a whole lot of detail about what Hillary has been counseling in the Situation Room this fall but it sounds like she's leaning towards substantially more troops.

I can think of two other differences likely differences. One, I suspect we'd simply be seeing a lot less of a president Hillary--fewer grand speeches and TV appearances. The presidency would likely seem a little smaller, a little more modest. (That's not a knock on Obama; when you've got star power like that, you may as well leverage it.)

I also have to wonder whether a Clinton II administration would have started out by squeezing Israel over settlements, although it's not as though Hillary has dissented from that line, so who knows.

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The far, far more intriguing question remains: What if candidate Obama had not been a fake and genuinely attempted to act out his campaign promises. Even with respect to Hillary the more interesting question is, Would she have gone the same "transformational" route as Barack? Of course she would! After all, is she not a member of Bilderberg NOW!! A wager: I say it is only a matter of time after Obama steps down before he becomes a member a well. Any takers? We'll let Michael hold the money, okay? george

- iambiguous

November 3, 2009 at 6:26pm

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It's very difficult to say what would be different if Hillary had won, but I can name one thing that would certainly be almost exactly the same: George Walton posts.

- ratnerstar

November 3, 2009 at 7:28pm

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Good poke, uh, I mean point, ratnerstar!

- Tgossard

November 3, 2009 at 8:11pm

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Can't say, Mike, but I'd lay my dime on Hillary's not taking as long as Obama has taken. I would place a more generous bet that Obama has glanced, nervously, solemnly, imploringly, desperately, at Lincoln's portrait many many times in the meantime.

- Tgossard

November 3, 2009 at 8:19pm

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I'm not joking. If I were he I'd be having night sweats and insomnia. His decision, I believe, may well stare up at him from world history books one day.

- Tgossard

November 3, 2009 at 8:25pm

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My take on this is that if Hillary would have won, the Republicans would be in a better position right now, because they already knew how to attack the Clintons. One reason they are floundering is that nothing they throw at Obama is sticking very well, causing them to become progressively more hysterical. The baggage brought by a Clinton just would have made their job easier.

- zardoz67

November 3, 2009 at 9:34pm

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rat, Clever. I liked that. But it doesn't really negate my point does it? Nor the fact that mainstream folks like Crowley missed it. g.

- iambiguous

November 3, 2009 at 11:03pm

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Hillary? Hillary?! Why assume that candidate Hillary would be in the White House today? The more interesting thought experiment is, What if McCain had won? Would he simply knee-jerk us into an endless war in Afghanistan, or would he surprise us by dithering just a bit? Would Rush and Fox back off, or would they be as merciless on him as on Obama, plotting a Palin-in-2012 coup? We would almost certainly not be having a health care debate, climate bill debate, Wall Street debate, etc. etc. The strongest Democrat won the nomination and the election. McCain was not chopped liver.

- koppgeo

November 4, 2009 at 12:38am

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I'd say if Hillary won, her administration would have at least -knonw- there was a gay marriage referrendum in Maine (as opposed to Obama's, which claimed it didn't -- at least the attorney general). Had Hillary won, a stimulus very similar to the state-gov-handout-centric stimulus would have passed because there was bipartisan consensus for it (the GOP wanted to be against it but didn't want to obstruct it). Then there would have been a chaotic battle over health care a la the 1993 budget with the White House horse trading anything to get something passed. Bill would be dispatched to the Middle East as this century's Philip Habbibi, and we'd be mired in triangulation and partisan squabbles over everything else.

- Lymon1

November 4, 2009 at 5:36am

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