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Go Home Chaos In Gaza

THE SPINE JANUARY 24, 2008

Chaos In Gaza

BY JAMES KIRCHICK

A high and highly reliable security source in Israel told me today that Hamas had been planning the breaking down of the walls (built by Israel) at Rafah, between Gaza and Egypt, for several months. (This was also confirmed by Amira Hass, the Ha'aretz reporter who seems to support the most extreme Palestinian forces in the conflict.) And Egypt seemed prepared for them to fall.

One piece of evidence: the Egyptians did not even try to push the Gazans back from whence they came.But this is not a fortuitous development for the regime that rules so awkwardly in Cairo. The first danger is that some Hamas militants may well have stayed, and are now winding their way to the capital where they will meet up with their Muslim Brotherhood cohorts. Dozens of the Brothers were arrested by Egyptian security forces yesterday, perhaps only to preclude these reunions.Nonetheless, the reunion buys Mubarak some goodwill with the Gazans. Of course, there are few residents of the Strip who recall the two decades before 1967 when the Egyptian army ran this tiny and overpopulated piece of land like a jail (unlike how the Jordanians ruled the West Bank). Still, if Hamas men link up with the restive Bedouins in the Sinai, many of whom have on several occasions facilitated the terror against tourism in the peninsula, it will only result in troubles for Egypt. And believe me: no one will rebuild these security walls.

This also established expectations by the Gazans from Egypt. Shopping there in the last days was a hoot. Ibrahim Barzak, an AP journalist, reported from the breach in the wall that, in addition to "food, fuel, cigarettes, shoes, furniture, car parts, even generators...some carried huge boxes of Toshiba-make TVs, ranging in price from $243 to $649." As I quoted the Times' Steve Erlanger in a Spine "'Patrolling' the Gaza Border" yesterday, "The scene at the border was one of a great bazaar." All of this indicates that the Israelis are right in claiming that there are few untoward shortages, least of all of money. I don't know whether many people noticed that, in "protest" against the Israeli embargo on fuel and power, Hamas itself closed down the power station it runs autonomously. Why? To fabricate an emergency where there isn't one.For the Israelis, the opening of the Gaza border with Egypt may be an improvement.

Yes, there will be the danger of arms smuggling and infiltration from the Sinai. But that will be Cairo's problem -- not only with Israel but with the United States, especially with the congress which is not so pleased to support a corrupt and immutable dictatorship to the tune of nearly $3 billion annually. From Jerusalem, shedding the pressure of policing Gaza's only border points with the outside world may seem a terrific relief.

There is one immediate problem for Israel, and it is that Hamas might smuggle the kidnapped Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, out of Gaza into the sands of the Sinai, loosing such intelligence as it has as to his whereabouts and his situation.Once Gaza is again bound up with Egypt, the Palestine problem also changes in dimension. The West Bank is the only Arab territory on the diplomatic agenda.

 

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14 comments

Gaza to Egypt. WB to Jordan.

- teplukhin2you

January 24, 2008 at 8:38pm

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"Gaza to Egypt. WB to Jordan."

I am all for that.

- jacksondyer

January 25, 2008 at 12:10am

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G to E and WB to J.  I agree, a no-brainer.  I think it's always been problematic, because from the beginning the Egyptians haven't wanted them, and the Jordanians haven't wanted them.  And I don't think they've changed.  WB seems viable.  Gaza remains a canker.

Hey, Tep and jd, it just occurred to me that the Palestinians, especially the Gazans, have been confined for so long -- arguably in a prison, mental and physical, of their own making -- that what we're seeing -- what we've been seeing for decades -- is in fact classic long-term inmate sociology, marked by both dependence and recalcitrance.  What do you think?

- jm_rice

January 25, 2008 at 2:41am

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Gilad Shalit, I salute you and pray for you, but in this case leave no man behind just is not applicable. if Gaza becomes a defacto territory of Egypt, then great. better them than Hamas.

- blackton

January 25, 2008 at 10:54am

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"Yes, there will be the danger of arms smuggling and infiltration from the Sinai. But that will be Cairo's problem -- not only with Israel but with the United States, especially with the congress which is not so pleased to support a corrupt and immutable dictatorship to the tune of nearly $3 billion annually."

Welll....do we really expect that the U.S. is going to destabalize Egypt/Mubarak with everything else going on?  If missles and other weapons are smuggled through Egypt and start hitting more serious Israeli targets, what's the more likely outcome: Israel attacking Egypt or attacking, possibly reocupying, Gaza?  

- Lymon1

January 25, 2008 at 11:19am

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Lymon, the problem about arms smuggling, I think, isn't Egypt proper but the Sinai, which has proven to be ungovernable, a bit like Pakistan's western provinces.  Egypt can't control it, but Israel probably couldn't do much better, which is probably why they were willing to give it back in '79 -- just another headache they didn't need.  So, if there's smuggling from the Sinai, Israel is not goiing to punish Egypt, which I don't think they've ever accused of complicity, have they?  After all, the two do have a treaty that, despite the rhetorical rancor out of Egypt, has worked pretty well.

- jm_rice

January 25, 2008 at 1:43pm

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Looks like the White Elephant called Gaza will soon be Egypt's headache:

news.yahoo.com/.../israel_gaza&printer=1;_ylt=AqnLlF5GoanZZstNfKc003UUewgF

"Israel says it wants no ties with Gaza Thu Jan 24, 6:56 AM ET

A top Israeli defense official said Thursday that Israel wants to relinquish all responsibility for the Gaza Strip, including the supply of electricity and water, now that the territory's southern border with Egypt has been opened.

"We need to understand that when Gaza is open to the other side we lose responsibility for it," Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilnai said, according to his office. "So we want to disconnect from it."

It was not immediately clear if Vilnai spoke for the entire government.

"We want to stop supplying electricity to them, stop supplying them with water and medicine, so that it would come from another place," Vilnai said.

Israel will continue to be responsible for the flow of such supplies into the Gaza Strip until an alternative is found, the office quoted him as saying.

Vilnai spoke as thousands of Gazans flooded into Egypt the day after most of the wall on the border was toppled. Israel imposed a blockade on the Gaza Strip a week ago, allowing only minimal humanitarian supplies and fuel for a power station in retaliation for a rise in rocket fire on southern Israel."

- jacksondyer

January 25, 2008 at 2:03pm

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Actually, Israel recently did accuse Egypt of at least willful negligence in controlling arms smuggling to Gaza.  Perhaps, as jm_rice suggested, Egypt simply cannot properly control Sinai - in the last couple of years they had a couple very visible&bloody terrorrist attacks against their tourism industry there.  I think it's both - they were not quite capable AND were having more than a small pleasure watching Israel struggle with Gaza and the enlightened world opinion.  Isn't it nice to be a "western ally", a recepient of a substantial US aid  AND to see your enemy, Israel, bleed both militarily and diplomatically?

But now, with the border barrier blown, Hamas in power and al Jazeera covering the events, Egypt suddenly finds itself - well, not yet fully responsible for their "brothers" in Gaza, but certainly under such threat. If Israeli leadership is really smart and quick on their feet, they'd seize the moment immediately, for they must sever any remaining ties with Gaza in order to deal with its rockets properly.  

Otherwise, they'll remain forever stuck in the situation where their feeding hand, and then some other body parts, is bitten hard, all the while  the outside world condemns them for their inhumane, "collective punishment" actions.

- sabaka

January 25, 2008 at 2:34pm

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>> So, if there's smuggling from the Sinai, Israel is not goiing to punish Egypt, which I don't think they've ever accused of complicity, have they?  After all, the two do have a treaty that, despite the rhetorical rancor out of Egypt, has worked pretty well<<

I agree, though I heard an Israeli official on the radio the other day keep repeating "we expect Egypt to control the border" (with the interviewer repeating "but given that they aren't controling the border..." -- I'm sure if Egypt would let Israel put the wall back up, they'd do it, but Egypt would never allow that.  But if/when these arms start causing more destruction,  I don't see any other future than a reoccupation of some sort, which is why I can't see much of a silver lining here in the "well, now Gaza is Egypt's problem"  

- Lymon1

January 25, 2008 at 3:35pm

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"I'm sure if Egypt would let Israel put the wall back up, they'd do it, but Egypt would never allow that"

Israel can do what it effing well pleases on its side of the border. What am I missing here?

- teplukhin2you

January 25, 2008 at 4:09pm

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It might be what I'm missing -- I thought Hamas blew up the part of the wall that borders Egypt.  How are all those people getting to Egypt then?  My thought was that if Israel wanted to rebuild a wall, they'd need Egypt's permission.

- Lymon1

January 25, 2008 at 6:31pm

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No, I was assuming that Gaza would be transitioned to Egyptian control. No wall with Egypt. The wall would then be between Egyptian Gaza and Israel.

- teplukhin2you

January 25, 2008 at 6:53pm

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reality check:  Egypt does not want Gaza.  Would be simply incredible if the did.

From:

Hamas: 500,000 will march on Erez

Khaled Abu Toameh , THE JERUSALEM POST Jan. 25, 2008

...

"The Egyptian government has told us that the situation along the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt will return to normal," a senior PA official told The Jerusalem Post. "They said they won't be able to end the chaos in a day or two and this is understandable."

...

The Egyptians have rejected the idea of Israel waiving responsibility for the Gaza Strip that was floated by Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilna'i.

"The border will go back as normal," said Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hossam Zaki, adding that Cairo had not been approached by Israel about a possible change in the status of the Gaza Strip. "The current situation is only an exception and for temporary reasons," he said.

A Cairo-based Arab diplomat said the Egyptians were worried that Israel was trying to "export" the problem of the Gaza Strip to Egypt.

"The Egyptian regime does not want anything to do with the Gaza Strip," he said. "As far as the Egyptians are concerned, Israel remains the only party responsible for what happens there."

Hamas legislator Mushir al-Masri said his movement was not interested in turning the Strip into an Egyptian problem. "The Gaza Strip belongs to Palestine, not Egypt," he said. "The Israelis are trying to throw the ball into the Egyptian court. But the Israeli dream will never be fulfilled."

- sabaka

January 25, 2008 at 8:42pm

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Seems everybody in the region regards the Palestinians as a poison pill.  Kind of pitiful, isn't it?

- jm_rice

January 25, 2008 at 8:54pm

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