THE STUMP MARCH 12, 2012
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At several points in recent weeks, as President Obama’s approval ratings inched steadily upward and the nice big job-creation numbers started rolling out, I found myself in the position of raining on the liberals’ parade. Obama’s prospects were brightening, but one thing could still seriously challenge that, I’d tell those celebrating his rise: gas prices. And as obvious as that observation might sound, I noticed that it was often shrugged off. Gas prices? Sure, they’re going up, but really, it’s just...gasoline. What’s the difference going to mean, $20 or $30 more a month? That’s a few trips to the movies.
Well, apparently it matters a bit more than that to a lot of people. The new Washington Post-ABC poll shows Obama’s approval rating slipping backward and concludes:
Gas prices are a main culprit: Nearly two-thirds of Americans say they disapprove of the way the president is handling the situation at the pump, where rising prices have already hit hard. Just 26 percent approve of his work on the issue, his lowest rating in the poll. Most Americans say higher prices are already taking a toll on family finances, and nearly half say they think that prices will continue to rise, and stay high.
Friday’s employment report showed a gain of 227,000 jobs in the past month, continuing an upward trend and offering the White House something positive to point to. Still, the survey — conducted Wednesday through Saturday — finds 59 percent of Americans giving Obama negative ratings on the economy, up from early last month. Now, 50 percent give him intensely low marks, the most yet in a Post-ABC News poll, and a jump of nine percentage points.
The negative movement has also stalled what had been a gradual increase since the fall in the president’s overall approval rating. In the new poll, 46 percent approve of the way Obama is handling his job; 50 percent disapprove. That’s a mirror image of his 50 to 46 positive split in early February. The downshift is particularly notable among independents — 57 percent of whom now disapprove — and among white people without college degrees, with disapproval among this group now topping approval by a ratio of more than 2 to 1, at 66 versus 28 percent.
These groups are also the ones whose shifting support has re-shuffled prospective general-election matchups. Among registered voters, Obama is now on par with Romney (47 percent for the president, 49 percent for Romney) and Santorum (49 to 46 percent). Previously, Obama held significant advantages over both.
At the risk of going all Charles Murray here, I’m going to venture a sweeping sociological generalization and say that discussions of gas prices and their political impact bring to the fore like almost nothing else the disconnect between Acela America and pretty much everywhere else. The right-thinking urban liberals who can’t fathom that gas prices will matter all that much in the 2012 election say that because...they don’t drive much! They are blessed to live in places like New York, Washington and Boston where you take the subway or bus, walk, ride your bike (maybe even ride a shared bike!) and at most drive short hops here and there, certainly less than the average car commute of 16 miles each way. Where you brag about not really using your car at all during the week; where the experience of standing by the pump is a very occasional one, where the sight of the digital dollar figure ticking ever upward is startling but also potentially gratifying in a schadenfreude sort of way: damn that costs a lot, but good thing I’m not using much of it!
Well, others still are. Gasoline consumption has dropped in recent years as a result of fewer people working and higher fuel efficiency, but it’s still awfully high in the places where people can least afford the rising cost. National household consumption is about 1100 gallons per year, but it’s up around 1500 gallons in rural ares. For someone consuming at that level, the difference between $3 and $4 gas is...$1500 (fancy math.) This, I should say, is one of the benefits of getting out of the Beltway and onto the campaign trail in election years: being reminded of distances. In Iowa for the caucuses, I stopped by my grandmother’s hometown of Red Oak, a lovely but fading small town in the southwestern corner of the state. I found the house she grew up in, a large, handsome Victorian a few blocks from the center of town and introduced myself to the owner, a fortyish man who’d bought it for well under $100,000. He is an HVAC technician but there isn’t much work to be had in Red Oak. So every day he drives to Omaha—more than 50 miles each way. Why doesn’t he move to Omaha? Well, because he’s from Red Oak, he wants his children to grow up there and he doesn’t want to be one more native leaving the town to its decline. You can certainly argue that many people who are hit hard by expensive fuel could avoid the pain by choosing otherwise—a sedan instead of an SUV; giving up the fifth bedroom in exchange for living closer in. But one could also argue that we urban types have not exactly done everything we could to encourage the decisions we approve of—for one thing, as Matt Yglesias’ new book argues, there’d be more people living less auto-dependent lives if NIMBY zoning did not have such a death grip on our most desirable cities, where close-in, walkable living is becoming a Parisian-style luxury. Bottom line: gas prices matter, and that should worry even those liberals who are happily ensconced in their iPhone on the Orange Line to Capitol Hill or the Q to Brooklyn.
follow me on Twitter @AlecMacGillis
14 comments
What role exactly does the President have in the price of gasoline - wave Michelle Bachmann's magic wand to get gas down to $2 a gallon? Funny how conservatives believe in the "magic of the market place", the invisible hand, and the laws of supply and demand until those become inconvenient. Conservatives scoff at any law, regulation, or idea that would lower demand.
- dubyadoubte
March 12, 2012 at 12:34pm
A note of caution about that last poll -- its conclusions about Obama's slipping approval rating are actually within the 4% margin of error from the previous WaPo poll, as are the conclusions from the sub-questions in the poll on specific issues such as the cost of gasoline and what the President can do about it (a 6% margin of error). It may be that Obama is losing quantifiable amounts of political support over this, or it may be that previous polls were slightly overestimating Obama's resurgent popularity. A third poll showing a slump in approval ratings due to concerns over the cost of gasoline would be more dispositive evidence. As for this and Democratic overconfidence, it's absolutely true that the increased cost of gasoline could be a big issue for swing voters in states where most people drive appreciable distances to work (i.e., everywhere outside the Northeast and a few other large metros like Chicago). Sure, educating voters about the issue and the fraudulence of Republican proposals may work to reassure some wavering Democrats but Obama needs to go on the offensive with this issue in relatively short order. An attempt to re-focus voter anger by trying to lower oil company subsidies isn't really sufficient, especially as that proposal is just left-wing partisanship that is DOA with Republicans in Congress. What the Administration may need to consider now is taking steps to dampen the increase in summer prices in oil, either by making steps to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve or perhaps even a temporary cut in the gasoline tax (to be paid for with reducing some oil and gas producer subsidies, perhaps). Other steps could be to propose tax relief for long-distance commuters by allowing deductions for gasoline purchases, and perhaps increasing available deductions for gasoline used for business expenses. These may not have an immediate economic impact but could convey an image that the Administration cares about the cost of gas to ordinary consumers -- a vulnerability that is unfortunately being exploited by Republicans, perhaps with some effectiveness. One other thing to note is that Obama may have actually done something to decrease the price of gasoline over the next few months by effectively tamping down Israeli demands for military action against Iran this year. The specter of war with Iran and the resulting supply shocks have been a big reason for the latest off-season rise in gasoline prices, and the Administration's refusal to countenance military action this year as well as Iran's recent return to negotiations have dampened the speculation for the moment. Things are obviously volatile and could change at any moment, but for now a return to relative normalcy in the oil-producing world should herald a return to more normal seasonal prices for the remainder of the year.
- wildboy
March 12, 2012 at 12:54pm
Now is the right time to start investing heavily in light rail.
- RedState
March 12, 2012 at 12:55pm
Yes, the media tend to come from and live in the urban middle and upper middle class. But surely I can't be the only one to point out that oil prices have been rising forever. Current gas prices are much higher than people are used to and the very warm winter (and low natural gas prices) have actually insulated people in colder parts of the country from high energy costs in general. What happened in the last month that caused this approval rating slide, in spite of good economic data? The Republican Party's pivot in all media to high gas prices, as illustrated through their talking points. They're ginning this up. And I refuse to go along with it, because, as you say, there's no durable short-term fix to this problem. Solutions can either address supply or demand. Domestic supply has already been ramped up--this is the bipartisan "all of the above" energy platform. Even so, our supply is a negligible contributor to the global supply and oil is a global commodity. This isn't a very good solution. Global supply is probably the controlling variable in the price spike we've been seeing. And interestingly enough, Republicans, by pressuring Iran and trying to lock Obama with a pincer move, are actually fanning the flames and pushing up gas prices by their war rhetoric. So if politicians legitimately wanted to reduce prices, they would have to advocate dovish positions on Middle Eastern politics. To the extent that anyone in American politics is doing this, Obama is clearly supplying the restraining force on the price spike. Domestic demand is on a secular decline. Unlike with macroeconomics, aggregate demand side measures are actually quite slow. Obama's policies to dramatically improve fuel efficiency were pushed when oil prices were actually lower, so he's doing the right things on this front. Eliminating heating fuel subsidies and promoting a transition to natural gas and alternative energy take time, but they ultimately continue the reduction in domestic demand that should decelerate price increases, since our oil consumption is the world's highest. Global demand is something we can't really do too much about, even though they are a bigger contributor to the long-run trend of oil/petrol price increases than any of the supply variables. To the extend that we can bend the curve, it will come from putting a price on carbon and negotiating a strong climate change treaty. Once again, Republicans have shown themselves to be simultaneously pointing out egg on Obama's face even as they sandbag any and all of the most effective efforts to solve the problem. Kind of like health care. Or the economic stimulus. Or fixing Wall Street. Or reducing the numbers of unwanted pregnancies and abortions. Republicans are the party of cynical political advantage.
- chaitless
March 12, 2012 at 1:14pm
Good points all, and it might be to Obama's short- and long-term benefit to do some things like encouraging urban redesign and changes in zoning laws. It's true that a president doesn't have much direct impact on gas prices but he could use his pulpit to start a conversation. Equally or more important for his reelection chances though, is for liberals to avoid overconfidence -- I think this is the main danger. Eight months in politics is forever, and all kinds of unforeseeable things can happen. We need to tone it down now, and get to the hard work of reelecting this guy. We don't want it to be too late if we haven't done the hard work and there's an October Surprise.
- Erik_S
March 12, 2012 at 1:28pm
The charming anecdote about the HVAC technician with the Victorian house in Red Oak, Iowa is just that. But high gas prices could well have a meaningful negative marginal effect on Obama's electoral chances. Note that mass transit doesn't only benefit the coastal elites. Last time I looked around the NYC area where I live, a lot of working class people use mass transit, too. But then my observation may also only be anecdotal.
- amidut
March 12, 2012 at 1:36pm
If you choose to live in Red Oak, IA and commute to Omaha, NE you have no business complaining about the cost of commuting, period. You got the house cheap, your real estate taxes are way below urban levels, your telephone is subsidized by urban users, and the roads you drive on are subsidized by urban drivers. This is a lifestyle choice (one I've also made, BTW), and if you didn't make it with the awareness that gasoline has long been artificially cheap in this country, you could have. Not that this analysis would stop people from blaming the President for their own choices, but Jeez ....
- IowaBeauty
March 12, 2012 at 1:56pm
FWIW, if you look at poll averages (Real Clear Politics and Pollster.com) it seems pretty clear--especially if you fiddle with the data in useful ways (always drop internet polls, for example)--that Obama's numbers have not declined so much as stalled in their upward rise. Someone (was it Noam, or Alec, or Timothy Noah?) noted that Obama was declining in Gallup recently--well, as of today, Gallup has him way up, 49 approve to 43 disapprove. Rasmussen (which must always be taken with a grain of salt) showed a ten point disadvantage in approval ratings just a few days ago, and now (overnight it would seem) that has closed to five. Gas prices are the only thing I can think of for this stalling (not really declining). It certainly can't be contraception. The only way to handle this is honesty--say very clearly (as Obama has) over and over (as he has not) that there is no silver bullet, that Keystone will do nothing to lower gas prices, and that when people like Gingrich say that he can get gas to $2 he's either delusional or lying or both.
- timteeter
March 12, 2012 at 1:58pm
Forgive me for being one of those elitist, city dwellers that doesn't have to worry about gas prices (because, you know living in Los Angeles you don't have to worry about a commute...) but if the President loses on a issue he has little control over to a party actively trying to make life more difficult for working class people then then this country is going to get exactly what it deserves.
- Archon
March 12, 2012 at 2:06pm
i have to admit, it is a nice trick by Republicans, push for heavy sanctions against Iran which lessens their production and also ramp up war fears, then scream when there is less gas and higher prices. the fact that so much of the American people are so effing stupid about it is what kills me.
- blackton
March 12, 2012 at 2:18pm
Somebody in the press pool needs to man up and ask each of the Fantastic Four exactly what they think will happen to gas prices when they start turning Persian sand into glass and Tehran retaliates by scuttling enough ships in the straight of Hormuz so that you'll be able to walk from Oman to Bandar Abbas without getting your feet wet. People will LONG for $4 gas.
- Tristan
March 12, 2012 at 4:39pm
Archon and Blackton have excellent points.
This spike in prices really just reaffirms the foresight of my decision to find a place closer to work when my lease is up this summer. I will literally save a small fortune in gasoline, enough to offset the increased cost of living.
- GSpinks
March 12, 2012 at 4:43pm
as Matt Yglesias’ new book argues What about Ed Glaeser and probably others.
- sighthnd
March 12, 2012 at 5:29pm
I have about a half-hour commute to class each day. To make that commute without getting killed I have to maneuver my seven-year-old Civic Hybrid, which I lock in on the speed limit with my cruise control, around a freaking flotilla of LeBehemoths and Battleships barreling up Powhite Parkway at speeds which suggest their drivers have confused this commuter expressway with Richmond International Raceway. If one of the drivers of those LeBehemoths and Battleships were to complain even once about gas prices within earshot of me, I would most likely destroy any future hopes of ordination I have by repeatedly kicking said driver in the groin until they shut up. In other words, I have no sympathy for complaints about gas prices, and if that of all issues determines any presidential election one way or another we deserve whatever fresh Hell God deigns to deposit the United States into.
- cspencef
March 13, 2012 at 11:59am