How Rick Perry–Mr. "Oops"–Helped Kill the Romney Campaign
November 07, 2012
Rick Perry's presidential campaign may have been a joke, but did it help decide the 2012 election?
FreedomWorks Loses the Senate
November 07, 2012
FreedomWorks shot for the Senate this year, and fell far short.
26 Election Day Predictions
November 06, 2012
What's Obama's Best State? How about Romney's Best County?
Metro Economic Growth Measures on the Down-Ballot Slate
November 01, 2012
As we move into the final days of the campaign season, all eyes are trained on the race for the presidency. But the presidential election is far from the only item on Americans’ ballots.
Don't Judge Strategy From Spending
October 31, 2012
Instead, follow the polls and the candidates.
October 29, 2012
2008 results: Public Domain Electionate coverage: Could Obama Win Arizona? Here's The Math | 10/14/2012 Daily Breakdown: Conflicting Signals About Obama's Standing With Likely Voters | /12/2012 Obama's Game Plan to Win Arizona | 6/26/2012 View Nate Cohn’s most recent posts, or return to Electionate’s Electoral Map.
Could Obama Win Arizona? Here's The Math.
October 14, 2012
A new poll shows Obama up by 2 points in Arizona, but could Obama really win the state?
The tracking polls showed Obama remaining at elevated levels, but the Washington Post threw a wrench into a clear assessment of the race: The Washington Post showed Obama leading by 1 point among likely voters but 6 points among registered voters, a bounce of 3 points among likely voters and 7 points among registered voters. As a result, the gap between registered and likely voters actually widened after the DNC, presumably because Obama only swayed the views of unlikely voters without convincing them to turnout on his behalf.
Minding the Metro Education Gap
August 29, 2012
For the first time since World War II, there are fewer jobs three years after the end of a recession than before it began. Our new Brookings report suggests that most of this flat recovery can be attributed to severe losses in housing wealth and jobs in industries such as manufacturing and construction. Yet education--especially the balance between the demand and supply of educated workers--is the most important factor explaining long-run unemployment in metropolitan and national labor markets. First, consider the short-run picture.