Economy

The Great Depression and NYC Home Prices
September 09, 2009

If the real estate market during the Great Depression is any guide, then property-owning Manhattanites will be waiting a long time for home prices to get anywhere near their bubble-era levels. Tom Nicholas and Anna Scherbina have constructed an index of home prices in Manhattan between 1920 and 1939 which shows that -- unlike most other parts of the U.S. during the 30's -- home values in the burrough flat-lined, falling by 69 percent to reach a new low at the end of 1932 and hovers around that value until the end of the 1930s.

Let's Talk Financial Crisis
September 09, 2009

For anyone interested in debating where the economy and financial system stand a year after the Lehman collapse, TNR is hosting a conference on the subject this coming Monday, September 14, at the Willard Hotel in Washington. We've got a real murderer's row of speakers and panelists lined up--Rep. Barney Frank, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler, The Wall Street Journal's David Wessel, hedge fund manager (and TNR investor) Bill Ackman, former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer, among them.

Worth Reading
September 08, 2009

China takes key step in internationalising its currency. A look at China's statistical creativity. Chart of the Day: % of economists who like fiscal policy improves since March. Switzerland tops U.S. as most competitive economy. Oliver Stone on "Wall Street 2" and second chances. Tuition at some Ivy League schools tops $50,000.

Economists v. Stock Analysts on the Recovery
September 08, 2009

Bloomberg's Eric Martin and Michael Tsang have a good story on the big difference between economists and stock market analysts over 2010's growth forecasts: Never before have Wall Street stock analysts diverged more with economists at their own firms over the outlook for earnings in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Profits for companies in the S&P 500 will rise 25 percent next year, according to the average estimate of more than 1,500 equity analysts tracked by Bloomberg.

Low Expectations for the G20 and IMF
September 08, 2009

As we wade through a long line of international economic meetings--G20 ministers of finance last week, G20 heads of government in Pittsburgh coming up, IMF-World Bank governors meeting in Istanbul early October (and all the associated “deputies” meetings, where the real work goes on)--it seems fair to ask: Where is regulatory reform of our financial system heading? Long documents have been produced and official websites have become more organized. Statements of principle have been made. And the melodrama of rival reform proposals has reared its head: continental Europeans for controlling pay

Good Finance Gone Bad
September 08, 2009

As the Lehman anniversary approaches, defenders of the financial sector struggle into position--partly in response to your comments (also here). They offer three main points: We need finance to make the economy work. Financial innovation delivers value, although it’s not perfect (but what is?). Don’t kill the goose that laid the golden egg. Point #1 is correct, but this does not necessarily mean we need finance as currently organized. The financial sector worked fine in the past, with regard to supporting innovation and sustaining growth. Show me the evidence that changes in our financial str

The Next Financial Crisis
September 08, 2009

It's coming—and we just made it worse.

Labor Day Regression
September 07, 2009

Why do we celebrate Labor Day but denounce unions?

Is Krugman Too *Optimistic* About the Economics Discipline?
September 07, 2009

So I think I agree with pretty much every point Paul Krugman makes in yesterdays' Times magazine about where economics went off the rails. Including his big prescriptive point: Economics, as a field, got in trouble because economists were seduced by the vision of a perfect, frictionless market system. If the profession is to redeem itself, it will have to reconcile itself to a less alluring vision — that of a market economy that has many virtues but that is also shot through with flaws and frictions. The good news is that we don’t have to start from scratch.

Worth Reading
September 07, 2009

How did certain economists spot the bubble in advance?  WaPo: "90 percent of all new home loans are funded or guaranteed by taxpayers". UK was this close to shutting down troubled banks' ATMs during height of crisis. Recession may be ending, but credit crunch is still here. Better late than never? Greenspan says banks need higher capital requirements.

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