The New Republic

On a recent Wednesday morning, under the gaze of a mounted bison head, Native American tribal leaders filled the Senate Indian Affairs Room for their annual legislative summit. They'd been there many times before, asking for fixes to the laws that govern their existence. This time, however, brought more than the usual sense of unease. READ MORE >>

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The president’s modest lead in the critical battleground states and tenuous advantage in the national polls is small by historic standards, especially for an incumbent president running for reelection. Nonetheless, the president’s lead is clear enough and consistent enough to deem him an obvious favorite heading into Election Night. READ MORE >>

Over the final days of the campaign, the president's and vice president’s schedule pointed toward a clear strategy: lock down the Midwestern firewall states and take a flier on Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. The Romney campaign's strategy was more interesting.  READ MORE >>

Over the last week, the best arguments on behalf of a Romney win have fallen off one-by-one. Before the final presidential debate, one could credibly argue that Romney had taken a slight lead in the national polls, that the big southeastern battleground states were tilting toward Romney, and that even though Romney trailed in Ohio, Obama was beneath 48 percent in a traditionally Republican state where the president was defying gravity. The national polls cast additional doubt on the state polls, or were at least cause to think that Romney could claw his way to an Electoral College victory. READ MORE >>

Early voting will be wrapping up across the battleground states over the next few days and spin wars are already underway to declare one side the winner. But as a general rule, folks should be more circumspect about early voting.  The main issue is the absence of an adequate baseline. There has never been a close national election in the era of 35-40 percent early voting and we just don’t know what constitutes a good or bad showing for Democrats or Republicans in many of these states.  READ MORE >>

With the final stretch underway and the two campaigns racing toward the finish line, Romney's opportunity to make a move in the polls is coming to a close. The surveys released yesterday and over the next few days will represent the final poll conducted by a firm in a given state prior to the election. Although the final wave of polls released over the next three days might ultimately hint at movement toward Romney, yesterday’s polls continued to show Obama well positioned in the battleground states that will determine the winner of the presidency. READ MORE >>

Yesterday wasn't an exciting day in the polls and nothing upended contours of the race.  For what it's worth (nothing in the Electoral College, to be specific), Obama fared pretty well in yesterday's national polls and was up by a wide margin in Washington State, where Obama appears to be holding near '08 levels.  READ MORE >>

After Tuesday's polls showed Obama approaching 49 percent of the vote in Ohio, Wednesday's polls showed Obama well-positioned across the battleground states.  READ MORE >>