Virginia

Over the next few hours, returns from across the country will resolve which of these campaign efforts succeeded and which did not. We'll learn whether the wealthy financiers of Fairfield, CT abandoned the president en masse, or whether a long-promised surge in Latino turnout will propel the president to victory. We’ll learn which voters flipped toward Romney, which voters stayed with Obama, and who will win the critical battleground states on the path to 270 electoral votes.   READ MORE >>

Seven Underrated Counties

 Throughout the Bush years, Orange County, FL, Franklin County, OH, and Bucks County, PA ascended to national preeminence as the closest counties in the closest states in the 2000 election. In 2008, the diverse and well-educated new coalition counties, like Arapahoe, CO, Fairfax, VA, Wake, NC stole the show. In 2012, Obama could easily win every county listed above and lose the election. READ MORE >>

Update: As of 5 p.m. there have been 71,849 calls into Election Protection’s 866-OUR-VOTE Hotline. The trends throughout the day include confusion over voter ID requirements in multiple states; long lines at the polls in part due to early voting restrictions; and inadequate preparation throughout the country—not enough voting machines or polling officials—for a large voter turnout. READ MORE >>

26 Election Day Predictions

If you were hoping for state by state predictions, tough luck.  Since I mainly trust the polls, my "predictions" aren't really mine (they're the polls) and they don't really add much value unless I'm dissenting. And if you’ve been following this blog and the polls, you can probably guess the basic outline of what I think will happen on Tuesday night.  So here are 27 random predictions that might be more thought provoking than repeating some variant of the current polls. When it was close or defensible, I tried to go with a somewhat interesting answer... READ MORE >>

The president’s modest lead in the critical battleground states and tenuous advantage in the national polls is small by historic standards, especially for an incumbent president running for reelection. Nonetheless, the president’s lead is clear enough and consistent enough to deem him an obvious favorite heading into Election Night. READ MORE >>

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