THE PERMANENT CAMPAIGN AUGUST 10, 2011
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During the last few weeks, Texas Governor Rick Perry, who is said to be on the very brink of launching a presidential bid, has said and done some things that would have been big trouble, and perhaps mortally damaging, to most politicians. On two separate hot-button issues (gay marriage and abortion), he first identified with hard-line Tea Party “10th Amendment” interpretations that states should be responsible for sorting out such matters, only to then obsequiously flip-flop to hard-line Christian Right positions favoring the passage of a federal constitutional amendment. And in an encomium to theocracy far beyond anything Michele Bachmann has conjured, he presided over a “prayer assembly” in Houston that embraced the radical “dominionist” viewpoint that only the subjection of America to conservative evangelical prescriptions could heal the country’s economic, as well as moral, problems.
Indeed, looking back over Perry’s career, these most recent examples are fairly typical of times he’s risked turning off influential factions within the Republican Party. Not that long ago, Perry flirted with the profound alienation of social conservatives by becoming the country’s most visible supporter of Rudy Giuliani’s 2008 presidential bid. In addition, Perry has maintained his support for a law he signed as governor offering in-state college tuition to illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as children; he’s championed a fishy-sounding and very expensive statewide transportation corridor; and he once proposed that every female teenager in Texas be required to receive vaccination for the HPV virus. So why is it virtually certain that Perry will be instantly launched into the very top tier of the 2012 presidential nominating contest the moment he announces his candidacy?
To be sure, Perry has access to a lot of money, and he is renowned as a tough retail politician who loves to give conservative audiences the kind of bloody red meat rhetoric they seem to crave more than ever this year. But it’s also clear that something else is going on: In keeping with the extraordinary timing that has charmed his entire political career, Rick Perry seems to perfectly embody the Republican zeitgeist of the moment, appealing equally to the GOP’s Tea Party, Christian Right, and establishment factions while exemplifying the militant anti-Obama attitude that holds it all together. He offers the Republican Party an opportunity for unity at a time when his only rival in this respect is the underwhelming Tim Pawlenty, whose once-promising campaign could quite possibly expire this next weekend in the heat and noise of the GOP straw poll in Ames, Iowa. And unlike T-Paw, Perry has the ability to forcefully project the talking-points of various GOP factions in a way that seems authentic, no matter how often he contradicts himself. It’s a rare gift, possessed by his one-time boss George W. Bush, and even more famously by—though the comparison may seem blasphemous—Ronald Reagan himself.
When it comes to wooing the far right, Perry has managed to identify himself with both the Tea Party and the Christian Right as thoroughly as Michele Bachmann, but without giving the impression, as the fiery Minnesotan often does, of being a disciple to obscure extremist thinkers, or being especially interested in pointy-headed systematic thinking. You can’t quite imagine Perry claiming, as Bachmann did recently, that he takes books by the Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises with him to browse on the beach. Nor is Perry in the habit of complicating his association with zealous evangelical pastors by excitedly telling crowds how deeply he was influenced by Francis Schaeffer. Instead, he keeps his relationships simple and at a distance, which also has the advantage of letting non-Tea Party, non-Christian Right factions in the party believe it’s all a shuck that he won’t take seriously if he’s elected.
On the other side of the Republican spectrum, Perry’s most important ace-in-the-hole is his appeal to Republicans who strongly believe the GOP should avoid divisive social issues and exotic constitutional theories and run in 2012 on a straight-forward pledge to create jobs and limit federal spending. On this score, Texas’ fiscal and economic record (on the surface, at least) during Perry’s long tenure as governor makes it easy for him to claim superiority to other Republican candidates, and to Barack Obama, without advancing any messy, controversial proposals for solving the country’s economic problems. This credential represents a direct challenge to the uncharismatic Mitt Romney, whose own reputation as a potential economic savior is mainly attributable to a career in corporate consulting and to the executive abilities he displayed in what conservatives view as his less-than-ideal tenure as governor of Massachusetts.
Such comparisons to other candidates help explain why Perry is already running in double-digits in recent national and state polls, without even forming an exploratory committee or spending his every weekend in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. He’s already much more successful than Pawlenty in positioning himself as a candidate who is more electable and less controversial than likely Iowa-winner Bachmann, and more acceptable to movement conservatives than likely New Hampshire-winner Romney. And, at this late point in the process, support for Perry as a unity candidate should no longer be undermined by the longing for a dark-horse savior like Chris Christie, or an old favorite like Jeb Bush, who will come out of nowhere to save the party from its current presidential field.
No wonder a lot of Republicans are willing to turn a blind eye to Rick Perry’s frequent flip-flops and over-the-top utterances, his occasional heresies to conservatism, his chronic inability to convince the citizens of his home state that they are living in an economic paradise, and his less-than-impressive intellectual credentials. Whatever he lacks on the supply-side of being an ideal GOP candidate, the demand-side of those seeking a viable conservative alternative to Bachmann and Romney will inevitably give his candidacy a big push.
Ed Kilgore is a special correspondent for The New Republic.
15 comments
I agree that Perry is a real threat to clinch the nomination and win the election, though it's only now that he's entering the race that he'll start coming in for real scrutiny and criticism. I certainly don't take his candidacy likely, especially in terms of the dangerous directions he'll take the country if he wins. But I still find Perry less of an electoral threat than Romney and certainly Huntsman because his religious fervor (whether faked or real) is more likely to alienate independents and Democrats than Romney would. And fairly or not, he'll remind too many people of his fellow tough-talkin' Texan who ran the country into the ground and who many more people blame for the financial crash than they do Obama. The commercials practically write themselves, possibly including those that show Bush morphing into Perry.
- Thunderroad
August 10, 2011 at 1:49am
As a resident of Texas, I can only say God help us all if we put this man in a position to fuck over the country as badly as he has fucked over Texas.
- krlong014
August 10, 2011 at 3:04am
I do not underestimate Gov. Perry's strengths in what is going to be a huge anti-incumbent pox-on-both-parties wave election. As a completely secular independent-thinking registered Dem, I took twelve minutes to listen and watch Perry at the Response prayer/fast rally. I was (surprisingly) moved by his prayer, which was not political, mostly from the Old Testament. How can anyone who endorsed Giuliani in 2008 (and was a Dem until 1989) be an ideological fanatic?
- K2K
August 10, 2011 at 8:35am
It's also a time when his secessionist tendencies might play well to the base, at least in some primaries (which is admittedly bizarre for the party that has tried for decades to make unthinking patriotism a virtue). Ideally, that would get him into trouble in the general election, but I worry it could get drowned out by reflexive bad-economy-anti-incumbency. Unfortunately, his appalling death-penalty record probably won't be interesting to a lot of voters.
- frippo
August 10, 2011 at 10:15am
Beltway insiders see Perry as, comparatively, moderate-appearing only because they have become inured to how radical the GOP base has become. It's true, Americans tend to be conservative. But that's small "c" don't-do-it-in-the-road conservatism, not ideological conservatism. What they are NOT is radical, which is exactly what the GOP increasingly is. Perry's prayers for rain, flirtation with radical Dominionists, with radical ideas like secession, etc., don't bode well for him in a national election. He solves a problem for the GOP establishment -- who fear Romney can't get the nomination and want someone to put a stop to Bachmann, who's gender they believe makes her less viable in the general. But, while he may, in hard economic times, do better than, for instance, Goldwater and McGovern did, two other candidates beloved by a party's radical base but too radical for the nation, he won't be president.
- esmense
August 10, 2011 at 11:02am
K2K this is the second time, I think, that you have defended Perry. I don't get it. Just because he reads from the Old Testament, that doesn't make him an acceptable person. Reading from the Old Testament and also, revising it in hindsight to suit a Christian agenda is par for the course for the people who've practically wiped Jewish people off the planet. Oh by the way this is a secular state, supposedly we have the right NOT to pray, you know? ?
- Sophia
August 10, 2011 at 11:44am
The common theme of both Perry's conservatism and his apostasies is this: he's an autocrat. Take this quote from Paul Burka, a Texas reporter (quoted in the Washington Post today): "He is the kind of politician who would rather be feared than loved — or respected." Whereas Bush II was autocratic but wanted to be liked, Perry is autocratic and wants to be followed.
- polcereal
August 10, 2011 at 11:48am
Esmense, the GOP establishment doesn't have a problem with Bachmann's gender, they have a problem with Bachmann's loose cannon rhetoric and general craziness which would render her electoral poison against even a comatose Obama. Otherwise, astute observations on Governor Goodhair. K2K, I don't get it. Your main criteria for liking a politician is whether he/she reads the Old Testament? By that criteria, you ought to be out hitting the streets for Dov Hikind's Presidential campaign.
- wildboy
August 10, 2011 at 2:33pm
Wildboy -- I'm not suggesting sexism. Gender is an issue because it is, in terms of presidential politics, an unknown. No woman has ever even won the presidential nomination of a major party, much less a presidential race. In that sense, being the first to put a woman at the top of the ticket requires taking a risk with unknowable consequences. Much of the Democratic establishment was afraid of Hillary -- a woman associated with a successful past president, who was taken more seriously by funders and the press than any woman in history because of that association -- despite the fact that women are a much more substantial part of their base. I think it is only natural that the GOP, for whom the gender gap has traditionally worked in an opposite way, would prefer that Bachmann was a guy.
- esmense
August 10, 2011 at 4:12pm
My, my. This crazy fool predicted Perry would be a major Repub contender over a year ago. pooh-poohed by almost all--- same ones that are pooh-poohingthat a Pregressive challenger could indeed unseat BHO (or produce if withdrawl) if we have an neconomic crisis before Xmas.
- drofnats1
August 10, 2011 at 6:09pm
My, my. This crazy fool predicted Perry would be a major Repub contender over a year ago. Pooh-poohed by almost all--- same ones that are pooh-poohing that a Progressive challenger could indeed unseat BHO (or elicit his withdrawl) if we have an economic crisis before Xmas.
- drofnats1
August 10, 2011 at 6:10pm
Good analysis Ed, but I think I inkled this in the comments section of a story by either you or Walter Shapiro a couple weeks ago when I predicted a Perry/Pawlenty ticket. Don't worry, your street cred on this stuff far out-weighs mine. Seriously, Perry is probably waiting for the fatal Bachmann misstep (if there is one) to become the "Anybody But Romney" candidate and then it will be the "Brawl for it All." I think the trick for Perry is to play coy long enough to escape the heavy scrutiny that accompanies a full-blown campaign. There's will be several windows of opportunity for him, but finding the best of these windows could be tricky. He has to come in early enough not to be an afterthought like Al Gore was when he tried to derail Dukakis in 1988 but not so early that his first disappointing performance will turn the attention toward Chris Christie or someone else not yet in the race.
- Lundell
August 10, 2011 at 6:33pm
@Thunderroad: Perry worries me a whole lot more than Romney. Yes, Romney is somewhat more likely to become President. But Romney is a cynical, pragmatic weasel, not an ideological crusader. His Presidency would be bad but probably not disastrous. The mere thought of President Perry gives me the cold sweats.
- Dausuul
August 12, 2011 at 8:22am
Sophia & wildboy : "K2K, I don't get it. Your main criteria for liking a politician is whether he/she reads the Old Testament?" NO. Someone is going to be the GOP nominee, and I want someone who values hard work because he has actually lived that way. I am increasingly moved by the confidence of the man. Nothing intimidates Rick Perry. He is grounded, confident, and one heck of a retail politician. From Toby Harnden's background portrait in today's UK Telegraph: "...After the Air Force, Mr Perry returned home to become a rancher, going into business with his father, a Democrat who served as an elected County Commissioner. In 1984, after considering becoming a commercial pilot, he decided to enter politics and run for state representative. His friend Don Comedy, married to a girl from Mr Perry’s high school class, was his campaign manager. The district was so big that the pair used Mr Perry’s 1952 Piper Super Cub plane, decorating its cloth-covered fuselage with campaign stickers. The population was so sparse that when they spotted a farmer on a tractor in his fields they would swoop down to land so they could canvas him. “Once we had to land in a pasture due to fog,” he recalls. “A rancher came by in his pickup. We were both wearing coats and ties. Rick says 'Howdy’ and reaches into his jacket for a leaflet. I hear this lever action of a rifle – a very distinctive sound. “This guy thinks we were drug dealers. Rick is looking down a rifle but he keeps talking.” By the time the conversation had finished, the rancher had written a cheque for the Perry campaign. “I decided right then,” says Mr Comedy, “that anyone who can go in a matter of minutes from the first impression of being a drug dealer to getting a campaign contribution would go far.” It was the first of nine Texas elections that Mr Perry would win. ..." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/8694278/Rick-Perry-the-Paint-Creek-boy-who-would-be-king.html OR, if you can only bear to read semi-liberals, you can read Mark Halperin's interview with Perry, and watch the video segments: http://thepage.time.com/2011/08/11/he-speaks/ Four more years of clueless Obama will destroy what remains of the American economy. He is now polling 49% approval in NEW YORK.
- K2K
August 12, 2011 at 2:00pm
btw Sophia: I am surprised you would detest a governor who has done so much to stop human trafficking in women and children.
- K2K
August 12, 2011 at 2:01pm