ELECTIONATE NOVEMBER 16, 2012
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Although Colorado was overshadowed by the Ohio “firewall” and the large southeastern battlegrounds, the Centennial State provided Obama with the decisive 270th electoral vote for the second consecutive presidential election. Colorado selected Obama by a 4.8-point margin—far more than Obama’s 3-point victory in the national popular vote. If the Republicans plan on mounting a comeback in 2016, their efforts should begin by figuring out what went wrong in the Denver suburbs and developing a plan to correct it.
Perhaps no state captures the challenges facing Republicans better than Colorado. The changes in the composition of the two parties over the last decade have almost exclusively worked to the advantage of Democrats in Colorado, who reap the benefits of a growing Hispanic population and gains among well-educated, socially moderate suburbanites without suffering the losses among white Southern and Appalachian voters that cut against their gains in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. As a result, Colorado voted slightly more for the president over the last two elections than the nation as a whole, even though the state leaned Republican in all but one presidential election since 1948.
President Obama’s successes in Colorado are hardly anomalous: Republican gubernatorial, senate, and presidential candidates have lost seven consecutive statewide elections over the last eight years, topping out at just 46.4 percent of the vote since Bush's win eight years ago. And Republicans can’t argue they didn’t have a fair chance: only President Obama could claim the full advantages of incumbency, since Michael Bennet was appointed to the Senate. The ability of Colorado's Democratic candidates to prevail in 2010's hostile political climate might be a telling indicator of the resilience of Democratic gains.
Although Colorado only possesses nine electoral votes, the GOP's alternative routes to 270 are bleak. It requires Republicans to pick-off one of Iowa, Wisconsin, or New Hampshire, three states with a stronger Democratic tradition, or Pennsylvania, where the GOP’s path to victory requires gains in Philadelphia suburbs not too dissimilar from those outside of Denver. And although it’s conceivable that a Republican could carry Virginia but lose Colorado, the two well-educated states are likely to go hand-in-hand. Loudon, Larimer, and Jefferson Counties will probably vote the same direction, and their states will probably follow suit.
Republicans have struggled mightily in Colorado for nearly a decade and a comeback will require the GOP to confront and overcome the forces imperiling their chances nationally. That makes the state tough for Republicans, but if the GOP can't unlock Colorado, they will struggle to find alternative routes to the presidency. Conversely, whatever Republican adjustments might permit a GOP breakthrough in Colorado would probably yield gains in demographically similar areas elsewhere, allowing them to reclaim Virginia and turn Pennsylvania into a dead-heat. In other words, if the GOP can't win back the Centennial State over the next four years, they're not likely to win back the White House.
7 comments
The Republicans are going to have to jettison the Tea-Party, their anti-immigrant stands, and not least their "Black and Brown are Entitled lazy folks who'll never vote for us" propaganda, if they're ever going to resume being a serious political party. Sure, they can win elections through propaganda and preventing people from voting. But only some of the time. The rest of the time, the wing-nut policies they pursue will energize the electorate to come out and vote them down.
- AllanL5
November 16, 2012 at 8:49am
I think this overlooks the importance of candidates themselves. A charismatic Republican could beat a Democratic stiff. Republicans chose a true and total jackass this go round. Now I don't know if Rubio can win the nod if he runs in 2016 as he has to get through Iowa and NH and other early battleground states first, but if he could and he could moderate some of his extreme views (or package them better) then I could see he would have a shot.
- blackton
November 16, 2012 at 9:06am
I am so frickin' proud of my home state for clawing its way into the 21st century. Colorado has been blessed with some very competent "technocratic" politicians over the last decade - Gov. Bill Owens notwithstanding and the backwards thinking Focus on Family, Inc. down in CO Springs. Looking over the electoral map over the last 15 years and folks will notice that the blue has spread along the I-25, I-70 and Boulder Turnpike corridors. During the Reagan and Bush 1 years, Colorado had maybe four counties that swung democratic - Denver, Boulder, Summit and Eagle counties. Since then the Denver metro area including former red counties like Jefferson and others have swung to the left. A few reasons I can give, then Mayor Hickenlooper worked with the other mayors of the greater metro area to master plan REX - the expansion of light rail, redevelopment & densification of older suburban city cores into Transit Oriented Development that anchored the future light rail stations. What this meant was younger, progressive & professional families had and have access to a more comprehensive mass transit system, dedicated recreation & bike paths that connect recreational corridors, a plethora of parks and other 'quality of life' amenities that even suburbanites like and enjoy. You also have a high quality universities, a still well-performing public school system in the state, a higher educated work-force in bio-tech, medical, aerospace, engineering, architecture - coupled with natural gas exploration, access to open space, the arts and a still vibrant agricultural industry on the western slopes and eastern plains. Colorado has always prided itself on independent thinking - consider that it voted in overwhelming majorities for both Ross Perot and Jerry Brown during their POTUS runs over the more "established" candidates of Bush 1 and Clinton. The GOP will still have strongholds in the more rural, poor farming and ranching counties but even former strongholds around mountain towns like Durango, Gunnison where folks from California or the East Coast relocate. Many of those towns and counties have shifted away from extraction & ranching industries to tourism and recreation which brings in completely different demographics and shifts the electorates. Even with a large Hispanic population at 20% CO is still 70% white/caucasian which tells you that the shift towards the Left is not predominately due to Hispanic population influx although it has helped. The 2000 census the Hispanic / White ratios were 11% / 80% respectively which means you has a 1% population increase among Hispanics during that 12 years. During the same period CO saw an overall population increase of 1M people. Regardless....the GOP will continue to lose ground except for a few counties. I suspect in another 5-10 years, CO will go the way of CA.
- singlspeed
November 16, 2012 at 10:59am
Blackie: Rubio is an empty suit, facing either Clinton or Biden, each of whom will be using Obama's machine. He will be annihilated.
- icarus-r
November 16, 2012 at 11:01am
The Republicans weren't beaten bad enough to realize how much trouble they are in. Losing 51-48 in the popular vote was deceptive. If the Dems had a white candidate, they would have picked up another point or two, and if we had a more normal economy the Dems would have gotten another point, turning this into a 54-45 drubbing. The popular vote is also deceptively close due to Obama's lack of White support in the South. Take away the slave states and Obama won the national popular vote 55-45. The Republicans need to lose badly in 2016 to have their Dukakis moment. At this point the social conservatives, the anti-immigrant crowd, the neocons, and the supply siders that make up the R coalition have no reason to give up their core position to help the others.
- nayyer_ali
November 16, 2012 at 1:29pm
Me too singlspeed. I don't think Colorado's going back to the old ways. In fact, I'm hoping the GOP has finally gone too far and we'll see some real movement back to the left (I hope.) Also I don't think this is *just* demographics. I think it's ideas. This election was a clarifying moment (I hope.)
- Sophia
November 16, 2012 at 2:20pm
sophia, I think we need a counter-acting GOP to the Dems and at least a more robust third-party that would keep every party honest. Unfortunately when the Libertarian party's candidate Gary Johnson is more rational and perhaps a better candidate than what the GOP selected...well I'm not holding my breath. I think the Dems can maintain a strong hold on the center and center-left. They just need to continue putting forth candidates that are smart and put forth good policy proposals. We still need to flush the old-guard out of both parties and bring in the next generation of politicians that are not only more socially progressive but don't see compromise as bad but a part of the system. But I think the Dems 'Big Ideas' won the battle and are slowing winning the war.
- singlspeed
November 16, 2012 at 2:31pm