Iowa

It's fair to say that their campaign doesn't see an especially credible path without Ohio.

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Turnout in 2008 was high, but it wasn't as unusual as many imagine.

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The poll has a history of showing Romney doing well in Pennsylvania.

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Obama's locking down Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio.

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For each of the last three days of the campaign, we’ll quickly note where Obama and Romney are heading, and why:. Obama Mentor, Lake County, Ohio. Lake County is a white, middle class county including the eastern suburbs and exurbs of Cleveland. Four years ago, Obama won it by just one percentage point, a four point improvement over Bush's four point win. If Romney wins, Lake County will certainly flip and Obama is fighting to prevent such an outcome.

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Romney needs good polls from more than just Rasmussen and a firm commissioned by Citizens United.

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Instead, follow the polls and the candidates.

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The state's demographics, history, and polls are all consistent with a tight race.

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Romney can't make outsized gains in a state where McCain did relatively well, allowing demographic changes to keep Obama in the game.

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Wisconsin 2012

2008 results:  Public Domain   Electionate coverage:  Daily Breakdown: Polls Show Obama Performing Well In Wisconsin and Iowa | 10/19/2012 Why Green Bay Is The Most Saturated Market In The Country | 10/18/2012 Romney Could Use Wisconsin, But It’s One Of Obama’s Strongest Battleground States | 10/17/2012 Romney's Electoral Map Is Tough Without Wisconsin | 9/7/2012 Daily Breakdown: Wisconsin Is A Toss-Up | 8/16/2012 Paul Ryan Puts Wisconsin Up For Grabs | 8/11/2012   View Nate Cohn’s most recent posts, or return to Electionate’s Electoral Map.

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