Iowa
Mugabe and Me
Could State Unemployment Rates Swing the Election?
In July, I argued that there was not any relationship between state unemployment rates and changes in Obama’s strength over the last four years. Two months later, there still isn’t a strong relationship between state unemployment rates and changes in Obama’s strength since 2008, but state unemployment rates do look like they might be moving the polls. READ MORE >>
Foodies-in-Chief
Foodies-in-Chief
Daily Breakdown: Is Obama Struggling in Nevada?
Without CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac, today was all but assured to be a better polling day for Romney. That said, the polls still suggest that Obama leads nationally, as well as in states worth 348 electoral votes. READ MORE >>
Daily Breakdown: Obama's Bounce Cascades Across Battleground States
Over the summer, polls showed Obama with a broad but narrow lead across the battleground states, roughly commensurate with his advantage nationally. Romney looked slightly weak in Ohio, but he only trailed by two or three points in public surveys—hardly an insurmountable margin. And Romney’s Ohio problem was somewhat mitigated by the selection of Paul Ryan, which appeared to vault Wisconsin into the toss-up column and create a somewhat credible path to victory without the Buckeye State. READ MORE >>
Daily Breakdown: Obama Leads Out West
The big picture remains that Obama leads by around four points, with a similar edge across the critical battleground states. READ MORE >>
When Mitt Romney accepted the GOP nomination for president on Thursday night, Republicans greeted him with a standing ovation. But it's safe to say that there were dozens of politicians in the convention hall who were thinking: That could be me—in four years. READ MORE >>
