Why Wisconsin Could Be the Key to a Romney Victory
October 15, 2012
Two weeks after the first presidential debate and on the eve of the second, it is clear that Mitt Romney’s surge is more than an evanescent bump. He has moved into the lead in the national poll of polls (something John Kerry never quite managed despite his victory in the first 2004 debate), and a number of swing states have shifted in his direction. This 2012 election is now in the zone where the Electoral College comes into play.
How the GOP Destroyed its Moderates
October 05, 2012
Moderate Republicanism is not intellectually dead. So where is it?
Daily Breakdown: Romney's Chances Are In Jeopardy
September 24, 2012
Obama's four point lead is alot better than it might look.
Mitt Romney’s Poetic Soul
September 21, 2012
Maybe he's a Romantic visionary, not a soulless technocrat.
Obama Further Ahead In Live Interview Polls; Robots Favor Romney
September 18, 2012
Over the last two months, there has been a clear gap between live interview and automated (IVR) pollsters: Obama seems to have a big lead in live polling, but the robots find a closer race. A majority of surveys in key battleground states have been conducted by automated polling firms. While live interviews dominate national polling (every major media poll is conducted with live interviews), only a few live interview firms conduct polls in the battleground states, since they're expensive.
Daily Breakdown: Romney Trails In Must-Win Battlegrounds
September 14, 2012
The big picture: Obama continues to hold a modest but clear lead nationally and in critical battleground states like Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. This is alot, so let’s digest it in segments. Good News For Obama Nearly every poll was consistent with a modest Obama lead nationally of about 4 points and a meaningful edge in the electoral college. Obama hit fifty percent in three national polls and led by four or more in four of the five national surveys.
Why Romney's Money Advantage is No Game-Changer
September 10, 2012
With the memory of the conventions fading and initial signs pointing toward an Obama bounce, attention is already turning to Romney’s ability to mount a comeback. In the minds of many, Team Romney’s financial advantage tops the list of reasons for Republican optimism. Indeed, the Romney campaign and its allied super PACs are poised to spend millions on a historic advertising campaign that some argue could bury Obama and swing undecided voters toward Romney. And yet ... There are good reasons to doubt whether Romney will get his money’s worth.