Daily Breakdown: Romney's Chances Are In Jeopardy
September 24, 2012
Obama's four point lead is alot better than it might look.
Mitt Romney’s Poetic Soul
September 21, 2012
Maybe he's a Romantic visionary, not a soulless technocrat.
Obama Further Ahead In Live Interview Polls; Robots Favor Romney
September 18, 2012
Over the last two months, there has been a clear gap between live interview and automated (IVR) pollsters: Obama seems to have a big lead in live polling, but the robots find a closer race. A majority of surveys in key battleground states have been conducted by automated polling firms. While live interviews dominate national polling (every major media poll is conducted with live interviews), only a few live interview firms conduct polls in the battleground states, since they're expensive.
Daily Breakdown: Romney Trails In Must-Win Battlegrounds
September 14, 2012
The big picture: Obama continues to hold a modest but clear lead nationally and in critical battleground states like Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. This is alot, so let’s digest it in segments. Good News For Obama Nearly every poll was consistent with a modest Obama lead nationally of about 4 points and a meaningful edge in the electoral college. Obama hit fifty percent in three national polls and led by four or more in four of the five national surveys.
Why Romney's Money Advantage is No Game-Changer
September 10, 2012
With the memory of the conventions fading and initial signs pointing toward an Obama bounce, attention is already turning to Romney’s ability to mount a comeback. In the minds of many, Team Romney’s financial advantage tops the list of reasons for Republican optimism. Indeed, the Romney campaign and its allied super PACs are poised to spend millions on a historic advertising campaign that some argue could bury Obama and swing undecided voters toward Romney. And yet ... There are good reasons to doubt whether Romney will get his money’s worth.
Romney's Electoral Map Is Tough Without Wisconsin
September 07, 2012
If Romney concedes Wisconsin, Obama's within striking distance of the magic number: 270.
Why Romney’s Convention Won’t Help Him Win Ohio
August 31, 2012
It's very hard to see how Romney wins without Ohio, where Obama just scored a big voting rights win. Did this week's convention help Mitt with that?
State of the Race: Obama Has a Narrow But Clear Lead
August 29, 2012
The race remains close, but Obama's advantage is quite clear.
Daily Breakdown: National Polls Show A Tight Race; Isaac Update
August 27, 2012
Isaac threatens the rest of the RNC with a landfall near New Orleans.
Daily Breakdown: Wisconsin Is A Toss-Up
August 16, 2012
The biggest news is in Wisconsin, where the first post-Ryan polls show a closer race in the Badger State. While Obama’s 4-point edge in the CNN poll might look comfortable, notice that it’s a poll of registered voters, so it’s probably slightly closer. Given that Obama has a 3-point lead nationally, Wisconsin appears to have moved right into alignment with the nation as a whole. That’s hardly surprising given the expected bounce for a VP pic and it moves the state into the toss-up column.