Daily Breakdown: Close Race Heading Into Day 2
Polls continue to show a tight race among likely voters heading into the convention: READ MORE >>
State of the Race: Obama Has a Narrow But Clear Lead
As Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan prepare for their national debut, polls show Obama maintaining a slight but clear lead in national and state polls. Although Obama’s advantage is often narrow, it is durable and consistent—enough to make him the favorite. But fortunately for Romney, the conventions are a real opportunity to undo damage done by months of attacks and capitalize on disappointment with Obama's performance. READ MORE >>
Daily Breakdown: State Polls and Isaac
Not an incredibly interesting polling day heading into the conventions. READ MORE >>
Tampa May Have Hurricanes, But It Also Has Swing Voters
A convention in Florida during the heart of Hurricane season?! What was the RNC thinking? They were probably more focused on demographics and voting trends than winds patterns, and politically speaking, it’s actually not hard to see why holding a convention in Tampa was appealing enough to offset the risks. The Tampa-St. Petersburg metropolitan area has ascended to preeminence in Florida’s presidential politics: It’s now the swing state’s last real swing region. READ MORE >>
How Romney's Mormon Problem Became His Greatest Asset
Isaac's New Threat To The RNC
Daily Breakdown: Likely Voter Screens Boost Romney
Fox News and CNN have surveys showing Romney making gains after shifting to a likely voter model. That’s utterly predictable, but the size of Romney’s gains is more interesting. READ MORE >>
New Prediction Model Doesn’t Prove Romney Will Win
A widely publicized political science forecasting model by Ken Berry and Michael Bickers in Colorado projects that Romney should win big. My take? Add it to the pile. READ MORE >>
Tampa Strategy
Mitt Romney is an imperfect candidate who has been badly served by a strategy that has failed to contest President Obama’s predictable attacks, leaving the former governor poorly positioned heading into the conventions. What he must do now is follow in the footsteps of another governor who challenged a sitting president and used his convention to revive his chances: Bill Clinton. READ MORE >>
