The New Republic

Over the late summer, public surveys and articles citing internal campaign polling began to suggest that Romney had a real problem in Ohio. But since the DNC, Romney has a new and somewhat underreported problem—Virginia. Before the conventions, Obama held a slight 1.5 point edge among likely voters in Virginia. But since the DNC, Obama has jumped out to a 4.5 lead, slightly more than his 4 point lead in Ohio and nationally. READ MORE >>

Last Monday, I wrote that “If Obama’s four point lead persists through the week, Obama should be considered a very strong favorite for reelection.” The last week has come and gone, and Obama retains a four-point advantage nationally. This argument will be elaborated on over the course of this week, but the bottom line is that Obama’s a heavy favorite for reelection. READ MORE >>

The big picture remains that Obama leads by around four points, with a similar edge across the critical battleground states.   READ MORE >>

The polls are a bit of a mess right now, but the sources of disagreement seem a little clearer today. A big polling duel might be shaping up for November: Gallup and Rasmussen v. World. READ MORE >>

Why was the Romney campaign talking about God's place in the Pledge of Allegiance, attending NASCAR events, endorsing Steve King, and whatever else? According to three Romney advisors cited by BuzzFeed, Boston has apparently calculated that there aren’t enough undecided voters and that it’s time to turnout the base. READ MORE >>

At the beginning of this election cycle, Colorado seemed like a state that Obama could not only win, but that could decide the election for the Democrats. After all, in 2008, Obama won Colorado by 9 points—more than his 7.3 point national victory—and the state gave Obama his 270th electoral vote. So it was possible to expect that Obama had an Electoral College advantage: If the states all swung uniformly in Romney's direction, Obama could lose the popular vote by as much as 1.6 points and still win the Electoral College because of Colorado. READ MORE >>

Everyone should agree that Obama is a favorite to win reelection. The question is whether he’s simply a modest favorite or quite likely to prevail. The answer depends on the resilience of Obama’s bounce. If Obama enters the debates ahead by 4 points among likely voters, as he was immediately following the DNC, he'd be a very strong favorite. READ MORE >>

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Over the last two months, there has been a clear gap between live interview and automated (IVR) pollsters: Obama seems to have a big lead in live polling, but the robots find a closer race. A majority of surveys in key battleground states have been conducted by automated polling firms. While live interviews dominate national polling (every major media poll is conducted with live interviews), only a few live interview firms conduct polls in the battleground states, since they're expensive. READ MORE >>

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