The New Republic

The campaign’s blanketed the country over the last few days, but both have settled on reinforcing their quickest to 270 for the last day of the campaign. Obama is hitting each of the three firewall states that add up to 272 electoral votes, and Romney is hitting 4 states that get him to 270, provided he also wins North Carolina. Romney Sanford, Seminole County, FL READ MORE >>

Over the last week, the best arguments on behalf of a Romney win have fallen off one-by-one. Before the final presidential debate, one could credibly argue that Romney had taken a slight lead in the national polls, that the big southeastern battleground states were tilting toward Romney, and that even though Romney trailed in Ohio, Obama was beneath 48 percent in a traditionally Republican state where the president was defying gravity. The national polls cast additional doubt on the state polls, or were at least cause to think that Romney could claw his way to an Electoral College victory. READ MORE >>

With huge samples, adherence to best practices, a strong likely voter model, and an excellent track record, there’s a case that Pew Research is the best public pollster.  Although Pew showed Obama with a clear lead among registered voters throughout the spring and summer, Pew found Romney taking a 4 point lead among likely voters after the first presidential debate and showed a tied race last week. READ MORE >>

The turnout assumptions of pollsters are increasingly under scrutiny, with the polls often showing Democrats with a persistent advantage in party-ID. Many hold that the polls assume an unrealistically high Democratic turnout, mainly based on the assumption that Democratic, young, and minority turnout was anomalously high in 2008 and can’t be repeated, while Republicans who stayed home are destined to rise from their couches. READ MORE >>

Early voting will be wrapping up across the battleground states over the next few days and spin wars are already underway to declare one side the winner. But as a general rule, folks should be more circumspect about early voting.  The main issue is the absence of an adequate baseline. There has never been a close national election in the era of 35-40 percent early voting and we just don’t know what constitutes a good or bad showing for Democrats or Republicans in many of these states.  READ MORE >>

Obama's Stops Concord, Merrimack County, New Hampshire Obama begins the day in Concord, New Hampshire, a modest population center in the south-central part of the state. Concord and Merrimack County straddle the boundary between New Hampshire’s Democratic-friendly western countryside and the Republican-leaning southeastern and more populous southeastern quadrant. To carry New Hampshire, Obama will need to carry Merrimack County by a modest margin—it was the largest New Hampshire county that voted for Kerry eight years ago. READ MORE >>

After a day of surveys from an irregular set of pollsters, the big picture remains unchanged but there are plenty of details to talk about. READ MORE >>

With the final stretch underway and the two campaigns racing toward the finish line, Romney's opportunity to make a move in the polls is coming to a close. The surveys released yesterday and over the next few days will represent the final poll conducted by a firm in a given state prior to the election. Although the final wave of polls released over the next three days might ultimately hint at movement toward Romney, yesterday’s polls continued to show Obama well positioned in the battleground states that will determine the winner of the presidency. READ MORE >>

The polls looked good for Obama over the last few days and Wisconsin was no exception. We Ask America, PPP, Grove (D), St. Norbert College, and the well-regarded Marquette University survey all showed Obama leading by more than 5 in the Badger State. The only interesting dissent—that is to say, from a non-partisan pollster other than Rasmussen—came from NBC/WSJ/Marist, which still showed Obama leading by 3 points with 49 percent of the vote. On average, Obama’s ahead by 5 points in Wisconsin, 50-45, in post-debate surveys.  READ MORE >>

For each of the last three days of the campaign, we’ll quickly note where Obama and Romney are heading, and why:. Obama Mentor, Lake County, Ohio. Lake County is a white, middle class county including the eastern suburbs and exurbs of Cleveland. Four years ago, Obama won it by just one percentage point, a four point improvement over Bush's four point win. If Romney wins, Lake County will certainly flip and Obama is fighting to prevent such an outcome. According to Obama's schedule, this will be Obama's last visit to the Cleveland media market. READ MORE >>