The New Republic

Everyone should agree that Obama is a favorite to win reelection. The question is whether he’s simply a modest favorite or quite likely to prevail. The answer depends on the resilience of Obama’s bounce. If Obama enters the debates ahead by 4 points among likely voters, as he was immediately following the DNC, he'd be a very strong favorite. READ MORE >>

Over the last two months, there has been a clear gap between live interview and automated (IVR) pollsters: Obama seems to have a big lead in live polling, but the robots find a closer race. A majority of surveys in key battleground states have been conducted by automated polling firms. While live interviews dominate national polling (every major media poll is conducted with live interviews), only a few live interview firms conduct polls in the battleground states, since they're expensive. READ MORE >>

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Somehow, there were just four polls released on a Monday in a hotly contested presidential election in late-September.  READ MORE >>

Since the Democratic National Convention, Obama’s approval rating in the Gallup tracker increased from 44 to 50 percent. Who propelled Obama's bounce? Check out the chart below: READ MORE >>

During convention season, the polls temporarily provide a less accurate picture of the race as voters sway back and forth on either side of their eventual preference. But this week, the polls are becoming more and more predictive of the eventual outcome with every passing day. History suggests that we should expect the lingering effects of the DNC to steadily diminish to the point of elimination over these next few days: Put differently, by Friday: we’ll be able to start assessing whether Obama’s post-DNC boost was a temporary bounce or a resilient bump. READ MORE >>

If Obama’s bounce fades over the next week, today might stand out as the day when the polls began to shift back in Romney’s direction. READ MORE >>

Despite the enthusiasm generated by the Democratic National Convention, there remains evidence that a slightly large gap between registered and likely voters continues to persist. On average, likely voters surveys conducted since the conclusion of the DNC show Obama leading by 3.3 points compared to registered voter surveys showing Obama ahead by 6.3 points. Similarly, polls detailing results for both registered and likely voters show Obama outperforming among likely voters by 3.2 points.  READ MORE >>

The big picture: Obama continues to hold a modest but clear lead nationally and in critical battleground states like Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.  This is alot, so let’s digest it in segments. Good News For Obama READ MORE >>

Romney needed to improve his favorability ratings at the RNC, but the early returns suggest that, while there might have been slight movement in his direction, a plurality of voters still hold an unfavorable impression of the Republican nominee. Moreover, his gains appear to have been balanced out by improvement in Obama’s approval rating. READ MORE >>