Daily Breakdown: No Sign of Tightening
September 25, 2012

Every day that goes by without a shift in Romney's direction or an event that could plausibly induce such a shift is a lost day for the Romney campaign. This isn’t about who wins the news cycle; whether Obama refers to Middle Eastern violence as a bump in the road doesn’t matter. It’s about events that could reshape one of the most stable races in modern electoral history. The race is likely tighten, if for no other reason than because Romney’s still short of 47 percent, which, in my view, is probably his floor given the president’s disapproval rating.

Romney's Unfavorable Ratings Impair His Chances of a Comeback in Ohio
September 25, 2012

It's been apparent for a couple of months now that Mitt Romney has a real problem in Ohio, which is great news for Democrats—Mitt can't realistically afford a loss in the Buckeye State. But if you’ve been looking at the post-DNC polls in Ohio, you might think that Romney’s Ohio problem is a little overstated. Yes, he’s losing by about four points in the state, but he’s also losing by four points nationally.

What's the Matter With Gallup?
September 24, 2012

The Gallup poll is leaning even further toward Romney than usual.

Romney’s Overlooked Challenge In Virginia
September 24, 2012

Over the late summer, public surveys and articles citing internal campaign polling began to suggest that Romney had a real problem in Ohio. But since the DNC, Romney has a new and somewhat underreported problem—Virginia. Before the conventions, Obama held a slight 1.5 point edge among likely voters in Virginia. But since the DNC, Obama has jumped out to a 4.5 lead, slightly more than his 4 point lead in Ohio and nationally. For all the talk about Romney’s issues in Ohio, his position in Virginia could be even worse.

Daily Breakdown: Romney's Chances Are In Jeopardy
September 24, 2012

Obama's four point lead is alot better than it might look.

Daily Breakdown: Obama Leads Out West
September 21, 2012

The big picture remains that Obama leads by around four points, with a similar edge across the critical battleground states.   The poll most likely to scream “headline” is Gallup, which is so far out of line from the other registered voter surveys that I don’t even know what to say about it. Obama leads by about 7 points among registered voters, and, no, the methodological criticisms you’ve heard don’t explain a gap of that magnitude. As Harry Enten of the Guardian (@ForecasterEnten) tweeted today, we would probably blow this off as a clear outlier if it was named something other than Gallup.

Daily Breakdown: Gallup and Rasmussen v. World
September 20, 2012

The polls are a bit of a mess right now, but the sources of disagreement seem a little clearer today. A big polling duel might be shaping up for November: Gallup and Rasmussen v. World. Before delving into details, let's not forget that the big picture is quite clear. If we simply ignored trendlines or the characteristics of the firms, an average of polls would show Obama clearly ahead nationally, probably by about four points, and clearly ahead in the big East Coast battlegrounds by a similar margin. Would there be a relatively big spread in the polls?

Romney's Turnout Strategy Puts The Ball In Obama's Court
September 20, 2012

Obama has the votes he needs to win. If Romney can't persuade them to switch sides, then he just has to hope they don't vote.

Colorado Emerging As A Possible Bright Spot for Romney
September 19, 2012

How Colorado Went From Democratic Savior to Toss-up

Daily Breakdown: Mixed Signals
September 19, 2012

Everyone should agree that Obama is a favorite to win reelection. The question is whether he’s simply a modest favorite or quite likely to prevail. The answer depends on the resilience of Obama’s bounce. If Obama enters the debates ahead by 4 points among likely voters, as he was immediately following the DNC, he'd be a very strong favorite.