The New Republic

With Romney trailing by a clear margin, a frontal assault on the accuracy of polling has begun. Some of the skepticism is understandable, but other elements are brazenly self-serving. I'll be assessing the critiques of the polls over the next few days, but any debate about the accuracy of the polls must start by remembering a central point: The polls are usually pretty good. READ MORE >>

Every day that goes by without a shift in Romney's direction or an event that could plausibly induce such a shift is a lost day for the Romney campaign. This isn’t about who wins the news cycle; whether Obama refers to Middle Eastern violence as a bump in the road doesn’t matter. It’s about events that could reshape one of the most stable races in modern electoral history. READ MORE >>

It's been apparent for a couple of months now that Mitt Romney has a real problem in Ohio, which is great news for Democrats—Mitt can't realistically afford a loss in the Buckeye State. But if you’ve been looking at the post-DNC polls in Ohio, you might think that Romney’s Ohio problem is a little overstated. Yes, he’s losing by about four points in the state, but he’s also losing by four points nationally. READ MORE >>

READ MORE >>

Over the late summer, public surveys and articles citing internal campaign polling began to suggest that Romney had a real problem in Ohio. But since the DNC, Romney has a new and somewhat underreported problem—Virginia. Before the conventions, Obama held a slight 1.5 point edge among likely voters in Virginia. But since the DNC, Obama has jumped out to a 4.5 lead, slightly more than his 4 point lead in Ohio and nationally. READ MORE >>

Last Monday, I wrote that “If Obama’s four point lead persists through the week, Obama should be considered a very strong favorite for reelection.” The last week has come and gone, and Obama retains a four-point advantage nationally. This argument will be elaborated on over the course of this week, but the bottom line is that Obama’s a heavy favorite for reelection. READ MORE >>

The big picture remains that Obama leads by around four points, with a similar edge across the critical battleground states.   READ MORE >>

The polls are a bit of a mess right now, but the sources of disagreement seem a little clearer today. A big polling duel might be shaping up for November: Gallup and Rasmussen v. World. READ MORE >>

Why was the Romney campaign talking about God's place in the Pledge of Allegiance, attending NASCAR events, endorsing Steve King, and whatever else? According to three Romney advisors cited by BuzzFeed, Boston has apparently calculated that there aren’t enough undecided voters and that it’s time to turnout the base. READ MORE >>

At the beginning of this election cycle, Colorado seemed like a state that Obama could not only win, but that could decide the election for the Democrats. After all, in 2008, Obama won Colorado by 9 points—more than his 7.3 point national victory—and the state gave Obama his 270th electoral vote. So it was possible to expect that Obama had an Electoral College advantage: If the states all swung uniformly in Romney's direction, Obama could lose the popular vote by as much as 1.6 points and still win the Electoral College because of Colorado. READ MORE >>