Electionate

Obama’s College Voter Trump Card
October 01, 2012

Obama doesn't need youth turnout to reach '08 levels to produce an electorate just as friendly to his cause.

Daily Breakdown: ABC/Washington Post Shows Tight Race
October 01, 2012

Obama continues to hold a clear lead heading into the debates, but the ABC/Washington Post pointed toward a tighter race.

Good News for Obama: The Turnout Gap is Closing
October 01, 2012

Over the last month, the number of Democrats claiming they will "definitely vote" has increased to nearly match the GOP.

Daily Breakdown: A Light Polling Day Without Terrible News For Romney
September 29, 2012

Romney got a relaxing Friday after a week with polls showing Romney trailing by as much as ten points in the battleground states.

Daily Breakdown: Is Obama Struggling in Nevada?
September 28, 2012

Without CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac, today was all but assured to be a better polling day for Romney. That said, the polls still suggest that Obama leads nationally, as well as in states worth 348 electoral votes. Let's talk about Nevada. In most of the electoral maps produced here over the last four months, Nevada was presumed to be one of the very first battleground states to enter Obama's column.

Daily Breakdown: Obama Near His Ceiling?
September 27, 2012

Three NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac polls grabbed the headlines by showing Obama with double-digit leads in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Importantly, Obama hit 53 percent in all three states, giving him more than enough of the vote to withstand substantial losses among undecided voters. Obama’s lead in the battleground states is getting large enough that the margin might not accurately represent his advantage. The remaining undecided voters are probably latent Romney supporters—voters who tend to vote for Republican candidates, disapprove of the president’s performance, but dislike Romney.

No, The Polls Aren't Oversampling Democrats
September 27, 2012

Some allege that the polls oversample Democrats, since they show Democrats outnumbering Republicans by the same margin that they did in 2008, or even more. It does seem hard to imagine that Democrats are regenerating the same support that they received in the midst of a perfect storm, but a closer look reveals that the polls don't show as many Democrats as 2008.  Consider the “media” polls that have received scrutiny over the last few weeks.

No, the Polls Aren’t Rigged to Look Like 2008
September 26, 2012

Dismayed conservatives think the polls showing an Obama lead are biased. Here's what they don't understand about polling.

Daily Breakdown: Obama's Bounce Cascades Across Battleground States
September 26, 2012

Obama's national advantage is buttressed by a lead in states worth 348 electoral votes.

Friendly Reminder: The Polls Are Usually Right
September 25, 2012

Despite the criticisms, the polls usually perform well on Election Day.

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