Electionate

Obama doesn't need youth turnout to reach '08 levels to produce an electorate just as friendly to his cause.

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Obama continues to hold a clear lead heading into the debates, but the ABC/Washington Post pointed toward a tighter race.

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Over the last month, the number of Democrats claiming they will "definitely vote" has increased to nearly match the GOP.

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Romney got a relaxing Friday after a week with polls showing Romney trailing by as much as ten points in the battleground states.

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Without CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac, today was all but assured to be a better polling day for Romney. That said, the polls still suggest that Obama leads nationally, as well as in states worth 348 electoral votes. Let's talk about Nevada. In most of the electoral maps produced here over the last four months, Nevada was presumed to be one of the very first battleground states to enter Obama's column.

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Three NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac polls grabbed the headlines by showing Obama with double-digit leads in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Importantly, Obama hit 53 percent in all three states, giving him more than enough of the vote to withstand substantial losses among undecided voters. Obama’s lead in the battleground states is getting large enough that the margin might not accurately represent his advantage. The remaining undecided voters are probably latent Romney supporters—voters who tend to vote for Republican candidates, disapprove of the president’s performance, but dislike Romney.

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Some allege that the polls oversample Democrats, since they show Democrats outnumbering Republicans by the same margin that they did in 2008, or even more. It does seem hard to imagine that Democrats are regenerating the same support that they received in the midst of a perfect storm, but a closer look reveals that the polls don't show as many Democrats as 2008.  Consider the “media” polls that have received scrutiny over the last few weeks.

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Dismayed conservatives think the polls showing an Obama lead are biased. Here's what they don't understand about polling.

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Obama's national advantage is buttressed by a lead in states worth 348 electoral votes.

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Despite the criticisms, the polls usually perform well on Election Day.

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