Size of Romney Bounce Remains Unclear
October 05, 2012

The first day of post-debate polls showed signs of movement in Romney's direction, but the polls disagreed about just how much.

How Romney Is Coping With Obama’s Newfound Ad Spending Advantage
October 05, 2012

Romney is dealing with getting outspent by taking risks in New Hampshire and Iowa.

Daily Breakdown: Baseline And Tea Leaves
October 05, 2012

The first wave of post-debate polls are still in the field, so we're still waiting to determine whether Romney received a sizable bounce. But a baseline is necessary to judge the size of Romney’s bounce, so let's take the polling doldrums as an opportunity to consider the state of the race heading into the debates. Why an average of post-DNC polls? First, the pre-debate polls were consistent with the post-DNC average. If the race tightened over the last few days, it only tightened from Obama's post-"47 percent" peak to something more typical of the rest of September.

Could State Unemployment Rates Swing the Election?
October 05, 2012

Obama's bounce has been greatest in states where the unemployment rate is relatively low.

Romney Won the Debate. But Will It Be Enough?
October 04, 2012

Whether Romney's upended the race or not, he will get a bounce in the polls.

Judge Romney's Performance With His Weaknesses In Mind
October 03, 2012

Romney needs to correct his favorability problem. Tonight.

Debates Have Moved The Polls, But Haven't Fundamentally Changed The Race
October 03, 2012

Debates can bring old supporters back into the fold, but they haven't swayed undecided voters

Daily Breakdown: Romney Needs A Big Debate
October 03, 2012

Heading into the first debate, Obama holds a modest lead with approximately 49 percent of the vote.   In the last forty-eight hours, 14 national polls show Obama leading by 3.6 points, 49.1 to 45.5 for Romney. Is that tightening? Perhaps only 3 of the 13 national polls suggest clear movement in Romney’s direction, including two released today: NBC/WSJ, which showed Obama’s lead among likely voters falling from 5 to 3 points, and a National Journal survey showed a tied race.

Daily Breakdown: Hints Of Tightening, But Not A Fundamental Shift
October 02, 2012

The Romney comeback narrative is already building. But is it too soon?

Zingers Don't Win Debates
October 02, 2012

Sighing and sweat have decided more presidential debates than great “zingers.”