Obama
The Welfare Card And The Post-Truth Campaign
Why Reid's Romney Tax Allegation Goes Too Far
A final note about Romney and tax returns: I love Harry Reid—think he’s been a force for good in the world and a major asset to Democrats as majority leader. But his assertion that Romney paid no taxes for ten years, sourced to an anonymous Bain Capital investor, is simply over the line. READ MORE >>
Everyone pays attention to who's winning, but not all leads are created equal: a candidate's standing matters too. If it’s July in a presidential election year, there’s a big difference between leading 46-40 and 50-44. The former could be a toss-up, the latter is probably not. Why? In recent elections, it is unusual for presidential candidates to finish beneath their share of the vote in summer polling. READ MORE >>
In Praise of Our Small and Dull Campaign
Romney Doesn't Lead Among Likely Voters—At Least For Now
With Obama holding a narrow but consistent lead in polls of registered voters, some have begun to speculate about whether Romney would seize the advantage once polls begin to apply likely voter models. While it's possible, recent polls suggest that Obama would maintain a slight advantage. READ MORE >>
Why Obama Didn't Push The Assault Weapons Ban
Yesterday, the White House made it clear that they did not intend to pursue additional gun control measures in the aftermath of the horrific shootings in Aurora, Colorado. Although this insulates the president from accusations of politicizing a national tragedy, the decision was probably motivated by political considerations. READ MORE >>
With Obama struggling among independent voters and Democrats likely to constitute a slightly larger share of the electorate than Republicans, Romney will probably carry independents in a close national election. That doesn't mean the effects will be the same across the electoral map, though: Since independents aren't distributed evenly across the country, Obama's dependence on independent voters varies considerably by state. READ MORE >>
In the wake of last week’s ABC News/Washington Post poll, ABC News reported that Obama has a problem with independent voters. On the one hand, this isn’t surprising. Obama has consolidated the Democratic vote, and yet he remains beneath 50 percent among registered voters; obviously independents aren’t swooning to support the President’s reelection. But does that mean Obama has a problem among independents? READ MORE >>
