Wisconsin

Daily Breakdown: Wisconsin Is A Toss-Up
August 16, 2012

The biggest news is in Wisconsin, where the first post-Ryan polls show a closer race in the Badger State. While Obama’s 4-point edge in the CNN poll might look comfortable, notice that it’s a poll of registered voters, so it’s probably slightly closer. Given that Obama has a 3-point lead nationally, Wisconsin appears to have moved right into alignment with the nation as a whole. That’s hardly surprising given the expected bounce for a VP pic and it moves the state into the toss-up column.

Ryan Could Move Wisconsin Into The Toss-Up Column
August 11, 2012

Of all the states where Romney and Obama declined to air advertisements, none stood out more than Wisconsin. In 2000 and 2004, Kerry and Gore won by only the narrowest margins, and it’s a state where Obama depends on the support of a near majority of the white working class voters who have proven skeptical of his performance. But even though Obama has suffered big losses in Wisconsin since 2008, he appears to have retained just enough support to keep the state leaning toward Obama.

On Making Moral Judgments About 'White Power' Music
August 10, 2012

It has been fashionable in the wake of Wade Michael Page’s tragic acts in Wisconsin to speculate on whether the White Power music he listened to helped stoke him into the senseless murders he committed. Such speculations, however, are as incoherent as they are pointless—and they are marked, above all, by a cloying air of self-congratulation. A comparison with another musical genre helps put the debate into relief.

The Campaigns Should Keep Spending in North Carolina
August 09, 2012

The campaigns are pouring millions of dollars into North Carolina and the polls show a tight race, but Nate Silver doesn’t think that the state is worth the investment. While he is certainly right that North Carolina is unlikely to prove decisive, it’s easy to envision how the Tar Heel state could play a pivotal role in 2012.

Introducing the Daily Breakdown
August 08, 2012

Today I’m offering my first crack at a new feature on Electionate, where I offer a daily polling round-up and quick takes on matters that I wouldn’t write about otherwise.  So what happened today? While two polls showed Obama ahead and above 48 percent of the vote in critical Virginia, the day’s big newsmaker is Romney’s 5-point advantage in Colorado.

Don’t Live in the Past! How 2012’s Electoral Map Could Differ From 2008
August 02, 2012

Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-th

So Goes Poland, So Goes America
July 30, 2012

After months defending traditionally red states like North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, and Ohio, Romney has finally decided to launch an offensive. Where? Poland: The predictably undefended flank of Obama’s route to 270 electoral votes. Poland is the ancestral homeland of about 3 percent of the American population, but a higher share of a few traditionally Democratic but potentially competitive states, like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, where Polish-Americans constitute between 7 and 10 percent of the population.

The Case of Pennsylvania's Missing Ads
July 26, 2012

One of the early peculiarities of the advertising campaign is the half-hearted effort in Pennsylvania—a state which figured prominently in the electoral calculus of the last three presidential elections. Despite that place in recent electoral history, Romney hasn’t aired any ads in Pennsylvania since the general election began.

Meet Mark Pocan, the Original ALEC Spy
July 25, 2012

Today is the first day of the American Legislative Exchange Council’s (ALEC) annual meeting. State legislators from around the country will be attending, as will representatives from corporations looking to pitch model legislation. There will also be spies. Activists from several progressive groups will sneak into the Salt Lake City conference, (at least, they'll try), in hopes of capturing some of ALEC's model legislation.

Is Minnesota the Newest Swing State?
July 23, 2012

Why isn’t Minnesota a swing state?

Pages