What Hurricane Sandy Means for Election Day
October 29, 2012

The two ways Hurricane Sandy might help Obama seal his victory—and the one way it could put Romney ahead.

Why Florida Remains So Close
October 29, 2012

Romney can't make outsized gains in a state where McCain did relatively well, allowing demographic changes to keep Obama in the game.

Virginia 2012
October 29, 2012

2008 results: Public domain   Electionate coverage:   A Three-Piece Turnout Battle In Virginia | 11/5/12   Daily Breakdown: New Polls Provide A Different Take On Virginia And Ohio | 10/28/12 Romney’s Overlooked Challenge In Virginia | 9/24/12 Obama Is Well Positioned In Virginia | 7/16/2012 Death of a Swing Region: Northern Virginia | 6/15/12 Romney's Virginia Problem | 6/12/12    View Nate Cohn’s most recent posts, or return to Electionate's Electoral Map.

The Latest Campaign Spending Increases and What They Mean for the Race
October 29, 2012

Romney is pouring money into Iowa and Wisconsin—and Obama isn't matching him.

Daily Breakdown: PPP Polls Show Obama Ahead In Ohio and Florida
October 29, 2012

Obama has a strong polling weekend.

Daily Breakdown: New Polls Provide A Different Take On Virginia And Ohio
October 28, 2012

The need for additional polls was waning over the last few days. The state of the race and pollster house effects have been stable for so long that the results of the next poll can usually be predicted just by knowing the state and the firm. But last night, two less-frequent yet strong pollsters surveyed their home turf and added a different take on two crucial states.   Plenty of surveys have found a one or two point race in Ohio, but with one exception since the first presidential debate, live interview surveys contacting cell phones have shown Obama leading by 3 to 5 points in Ohio.

Daily Breakdown: Polls Show A Tight Race In Virginia and Colorado
October 26, 2012

If Obama won either state, he would probably be reelected the president.

Will Undecided Voters Tip the Election Against Obama?
October 25, 2012

Obama's ground game is important, but it may not make up for his problems with undecided voters.

Expect the Unexpected: Diverse Battleground States Mean the Race Can Shift in Any Number of Ways
October 24, 2012

The 9 battleground states are so diverse that movement among demographic could change the election.

The South Isn't Responsible For Obama's Weak National Poll Numbers
October 22, 2012

Obama's struggling just about everywhere that he did well among Bush voters.