The New Republic

After Romney gained about 3 points over the weekend, Obama made gains in today’s Rasmussen and Gallup approval tracking polls, suggesting that Romney’s bounce had peaked and was beginning to fade. At least until Pew interrupted. READ MORE >>

With post-debate polls showing Romney making gains nationally, the race appears tight enough to again merit consideration of the Electoral College. So what states are most important to watch after the debates? While Florida, Virginia, and Colorado could all prove decisive, the pre-debate polls suggested that Romney's biggest problems were Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio. Consider an average of post-DNC polls in the battleground states: READ MORE >>

In July, I argued that there was not any relationship between state unemployment rates and changes in Obama’s strength over the last four years. Two months later, there still isn’t a strong relationship between state unemployment rates and changes in Obama’s strength since 2008, but state unemployment rates do look like they might be moving the polls. READ MORE >>

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Compared to some of the large Obama leads from the past week, yesterday’s polls weren’t terrible for Romney These polls are still consistent with a clear Obama lead, but here’s a way to look at it: how many of these polls are better for Obama than the average poll over the last week? Even the PPP/NRDC polls were only in-line with the average, with the possible exception of Virginia.  READ MORE >>

Without CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac, today was all but assured to be a better polling day for Romney. That said, the polls still suggest that Obama leads nationally, as well as in states worth 348 electoral votes. READ MORE >>

Over the summer, polls showed Obama with a broad but narrow lead across the battleground states, roughly commensurate with his advantage nationally. Romney looked slightly weak in Ohio, but he only trailed by two or three points in public surveys—hardly an insurmountable margin. And Romney’s Ohio problem was somewhat mitigated by the selection of Paul Ryan, which appeared to vault Wisconsin into the toss-up column and create a somewhat credible path to victory without the Buckeye State. READ MORE >>

It's been apparent for a couple of months now that Mitt Romney has a real problem in Ohio, which is great news for Democrats—Mitt can't realistically afford a loss in the Buckeye State. But if you’ve been looking at the post-DNC polls in Ohio, you might think that Romney’s Ohio problem is a little overstated. Yes, he’s losing by about four points in the state, but he’s also losing by four points nationally. READ MORE >>

Over the late summer, public surveys and articles citing internal campaign polling began to suggest that Romney had a real problem in Ohio. But since the DNC, Romney has a new and somewhat underreported problem—Virginia. Before the conventions, Obama held a slight 1.5 point edge among likely voters in Virginia. But since the DNC, Obama has jumped out to a 4.5 lead, slightly more than his 4 point lead in Ohio and nationally. READ MORE >>

Last Monday, I wrote that “If Obama’s four point lead persists through the week, Obama should be considered a very strong favorite for reelection.” The last week has come and gone, and Obama retains a four-point advantage nationally. This argument will be elaborated on over the course of this week, but the bottom line is that Obama’s a heavy favorite for reelection. READ MORE >>